Samson Mow has joined a growing chorus of voices suggesting that bitcoin’s traditional post-halving market cycle may no longer hold. Following the cryptocurrency’s climb to a then-record high ahead of the April 2024 halving, institutional demand surged after the launch of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. While some analysts argue this marks a structural shift, others caution that it’s premature to declare the end of historical patterns.
$55,000 more likely
Not all market observers share this optimism. Several analysts have recently posited that bitcoin is nearing a market bottom or could still decline further, leveraging varied technical indicators and models. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole highlighted that a historically reliable contrarian metric points to limited downside potential, suggesting significant losses are unlikely. This analysis hinges on the relationship between bitcoin’s 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages, with the former approaching a potential bearish crossover relative to the latter. Historically, such technical signals have preceded turning points in market cycles, fueling cautious optimism among some traders.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, projects a more moderate recovery, estimating bitcoin’s floor closer to $55,000, potentially materializing between August and October. Meanwhile, BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes adopts a more pessimistic stance, forecasting a bottom near $40,000 within the next six months. These divergent views underscore the ongoing uncertainty surrounding bitcoin’s trajectory as institutional adoption reshapes market dynamics.
