Analysts Flag Potential Bitcoin Drop to $38K as NYDIG Points to Cycle Patterns</TITLE]

Analysts Flag Potential Bitcoin Drop to $38K as NYDIG Points to Cycle PatternsBitcoin has lagged behind other risk-oriented assets in 2026, and based on historical trends, its value could fall to around $38,000 by October, according to a recent NYDIG report.

The research indicates that the current weakness stems from supply dynamics rather than a shift in overall risk appetite.

Historically, Bitcoin has tracked technology stocks, but 2026 has diverged: AI-linked equities have rallied while crypto markets declined. Bitcoin recently traded at $64,809, down nearly 30% year-to-date and roughly 50% below its October record high of $126,080.

“Bitcoin’s 2025–2026 drawdown is bringing the 4-year cycle narrative back into focus, because the timing and structure increasingly resemble the prior reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 even though the path has not matched those drawdowns exactly,” the report stated.

NYDIG noted that Bitcoin’s year-to-date return makes it the poorest-performing asset, trailing U.S. Treasuries, silver, and currencies such as the Swiss franc.

The firm added that if Bitcoin were to follow the trajectory of prior pullbacks like the 2022 bear market, a “potential cycle low near $38k–$39k” could materialize.

On a positive note, Bitcoin experienced its calmest year on record in 2025, and some analysts suggest this downturn may be less severe than earlier bear markets.

Is Bitcoin digital gold?

NYDIG observed that Bitcoin’s rolling correlation with gold rose during the second quarter of 2026, as both assets faced selling pressure.

Bitcoin has shown ties to the metal before, and supporters often call it “digital gold.”

Last year, however, it was more closely linked to U.S. equities, particularly tech shares.

NYDIG further noted that other commodities also sold off in Q2 2026, with the so-called debasement trade losing steam. Through 2025, traders used the term to describe hedging against the weakening of the dollar and other fiat currencies.

Bitwise said in a report last week that although Bitcoin ended Q2 2026 in its longest and deepest slump since the last bear market, solid fundamentals and crypto-friendly regulation could support a swift rebound.

NYDIG said the passage of the market-structure CLARITY Act “is the most important forward catalyst for the digital asset industry.”

“For Bitcoin, CLARITY’s direct price impact is less significant than for altcoins and crypto equities, but the investment implication remains material because a clearer U.S. market-structure regime would benefit the entire industry,” it added.

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