Ankara Charts NATO-Aligned Air Defense Path As Russian S-400s Remain Sidelined

The final parts of the second battery of Russian S-400 missile defense system arrive at Murted Airbase in Ankara, Turkey on September 15, 2019. (Photo by TURKISH NATIONAL DEFENSE MINISTRY / HANDOUT/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

As Turkey advances its ambitious Steel Dome national integrated air defense program, it is turning to traditional NATO allies for strategic systems. Ankara is currently evaluating the American MIM-104 Patriot and the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. Regardless of the final choice, the move underscores that the Russian S-400 systems purchased seven years ago have no place in the country’s future air defense structure.

Ahead of the NATO summit hosted by Turkey on Tuesday and Wednesday, Defense Minister Yasar Guler stated that Ankara is examining “all options” to satisfy its air defense needs, naming the Patriot and SAMP/T as candidates.

“Our core approach on this issue is clear: we are open to all cooperation that meets our country’s security needs, that includes technology-sharing and joint production, and that is sustainable and in line with the spirit of the alliance,” Guler told Reuters in late June.

Although he referenced “all options,” both named systems are Western-made. Given Ankara’s earlier unsuccessful pursuit of non-Western alternatives—which produced few benefits and strained ties with NATO—the Western focus is unsurprising.

Turkey has long aimed to close the anti-ballistic missile gap that left it exposed to Iraqi and Syrian Scud threats. The recent conflict involving Iran again highlighted this vulnerability and Ankara’s reliance on allies, who supplied Patriots on Turkish soil and SM-3 interceptors from Eastern Mediterranean warships. In June, NATO also sent a SAMP/T unit to Konya, bringing the total of allied systems in Turkey to four.

Under a multi-billion-dollar tender, Ankara sought technology transfer and co-production to strengthen its defense industry. In 2013, it warned European partners it might choose China’s FD-2000 if Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, and Eurosam failed to meet terms. Those firms cautioned that such a move would hurt cooperation, and Turkey canceled the $3.4 billion Chinese deal by late 2015.

Within two years, following the July 2016 coup attempt, Turkey opened talks with Russia for S-400 systems. The U.S. and NATO warned of repercussions, but Ankara proceeded, receiving two batteries and 120 interceptors in 2019. A prior U.S. offer of Patriots expired once the Russian systems arrived.

The Russian purchase included no technology transfer or co-production—only an off-the-shelf sale with training. Turkey fielded systems it never activated operationally and was barred from the F-35 program. Despite being its only nominal anti-ballistic capability, the S-400s stayed idle during the Iran war.

Analysts view the S-400s as a costly redundancy. One theory holds they were bought as a standalone safeguard against a U.S.-equipped domestic air force in a future coup, since the system can target F-16s. The non-integrated batteries could theoretically intercept such jets.

Guler said this March that Turkey might still use the S-400 in standalone mode, but the U.S. is unlikely to accept that as grounds for lifting the F-35 ban. Washington demands removal or inspected storage of the systems. Active S-400 use appears a nonstarter unless President Trump reverses policy.

Turkey excluded the S-400 from Steel Dome, instead developing the Siper Block-III for ballistic defense—its first indigenous interceptor. Added Patriots or SAMP/Ts would reduce dependence on allies for such protection.

Though the U.S. once offered Patriots without transfer, since 2017 Ankara has pursued joint SAMP/T production. The Russian deal and France disputes stalled this for a decade, but Reuters reports Paris may now approve a sale. Including co-production would further erase any S-400 rationale.

Last December, Bloomberg said Erdogan asked Putin to take back the S-400s to enable F-35 return. Turkey is negotiating F110 engines for its TF Kaan fighter, yet the F-35 ban stands. Past talk of Russian engine work for Kaan yielded nothing.

Rather than leave the S-400s unused, Ankara sees greater value with Western partners: realizing Steel Dome and Kaan, possibly regaining F-35s. Any one goal outweighs keeping the Russian systems; all three make their removal clear.

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