Anthropic IPO Stumbles as Big Tech Earnings Dampen AI Investment Outlook

Co-founder and CEO of Anthropic Dario Amodei watches as President Donald Trump speaks to the press after a meeting with technology executives about artificial intelligence at the White House in Washington, Sept. 29, 2026.

Kent Nishimura | AFP | Getty Images

Anthropic’s debut prospectus arrived at a turbulent moment for the AI sector. Within days of the filing, key partners Microsoft, Google, and Amazon reported quarterly results that heightened investor concern about the profitability of massive AI spend.

“Everybody’s still full steam ahead on AI, but all the things around it took an interesting turn this week,” said Daniel Newman, CEO of Futurum Group, in a Friday CNBC interview. The hyperscalers’ earnings have “raised eyebrows” and created a new headwind, adding “more doubt on capital structure.”

Investors will have to weigh Anthropic’s hefty losses—$80 billion for the first half of 2026—alongside hundreds of billions in compute commitments and more than 90 pages of risk factors while awaiting third‑quarter financials. The AI startup relies heavily on its cloud partners (Amazon, Google, and SpaceX) and on neocloud operators such as CoreWeave and Nebius, whose own financing challenges are raising red flags.

Market nerves intensified after Intel issued a weak forecast, dragging the Nasdaq into its first three‑week decline since March and sending semiconductor stocks lower. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon each reported capital‑expenditure guidance below analyst expectations, while Amazon posted negative free cash flow of $42.4 billion and Google recorded a $9.1 billion shortfall.

“It’s been an ugly reporting season for tech thus far,” wrote Jonathan Krinsky of BTIG, dubbing the fallout “The Techsas Chainsaw Massacre.”

Even so, cloud growth remains robust. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all beat revenue estimates, with Google’s cloud business more than doubling year‑over‑year. Oracle, a major AI‑data‑center investor, said it will limit new fundraising to $20 billion and expects positive cash flow in the second half of next fiscal year.

Cloud growth remains strong

Anthropic’s hyperscaler partners are also among its biggest investors, creating a mutually dependent flywheel that will be a focal point in the upcoming roadshow.

Attention will now shift back to Anthropic as investors gauge risk and pricing for what could be a record‑setting IPO. The market has been largely frozen since SpaceX’s June offering, with several firms postponing or abandoning listings.

“Anthropic is the IPO market at this point,” Newman said, noting the company’s “very impressive” prospectus, which shows 1,300% annual sales growth, 900% net‑revenue retention, and an implied gross margin of 85%. “I think companies would have to be extremely cautious, if not just foolish, to actually want to come out in this period.”

— CNBC’s Jordan Novet, Annie Palmer and Samantha Subin contributed to this report.

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