Anthropic May Restore Fable 5 Access by July, Prediction Markets Suggest

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Artificial intelligence giant Anthropic shocked observers when it announced Friday evening that it had disabled access to its Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models to comply with a U.S. government order.

However, traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe it is more likely than not that the Fable model will be made available to U.S. consumers again by July.

According to Kalshi, traders assign a 58% probability that access to Fable 5 will be restored before July 1. They place a 74% probability that the model will be back in service by July 10. For the contract to resolve to “yes,” general access to the model must be re‑established for U.S. customers.

Access to Fable 5 was disabled after the U.S. government instructed Anthropic to suspend use of the technology for any foreign national, regardless of location. To ensure compliance, Anthropic temporarily disabled the model for all users.

The decision followed the recent launch of Fable 5 and came just days after the company announced the model. Previously, Anthropic had clashed with the Trump administration when the Department of Defense labeled the firm a supply‑chain risk in March.

Traders’ optimism coincides with reports that Anthropic met with the Trump administration on Monday to discuss the model. It remains unclear whether the meeting resulted in any substantive progress.

On Polymarket, traders assign a 67% probability that access will be restored to U.S. customers by July 1.

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