Anticipatory Action: Shielding Vulnerable Communities from the Growing El Niño Crisis

From South Sudan to Guatemala, the World Food Programme’s anticipatory projects are empowering vulnerable communities to better prepare for and respond to severe weather shocks.

In South Sudan’s Eastern Equatoria state, the seasonal Singaita River has been reduced to a long stretch of sand, cutting through a landscape scorched by relentless heat. Fields that should be lush green with sorghum and maize lie brown and brittle. Water points are rapidly shrinking, forcing women and girls to walk increasingly longer distances to secure this precious resource.

Standing beside the dry riverbed, Lokitoe Lokale looks to the sky each day, searching for rain that has yet to come. For the mother of four, the severity of the current drought is measured by the shrinking number of daily meals she can prepare for her children.

“There is so much hunger here in Kapoeta North,” she says of the county where she lives. “The sun is burning like fire and there has been no rain. There is a serious food shortage. There is no sorghum. Everything has dried up.”

Cracked earth and failed harvests are not limited to South Sudan. This year, vast swathes of Africa, Asia, and Latin America are expected to face severe weather extremes, including droughts, storms, and floods—or a mix of all three—linked to a potentially record-breaking El Niño weather phenomenon.

For the world’s poorest and most food-insecure populations, the effects could be devastating, with impacts cascading into 2027. Recent World Food Programme (WFP) analysis warns that this latest El Niño could push nearly 50 million people into acute hunger—a rise of more than one-fifth from current figures. In Africa alone, the African Development Bank estimates the weather pattern could shrink gross economic output by up to US$20 billion in affected nations and trigger widespread displacement.

However, WFP is working closely with governments and humanitarian partners to avert these worst-case scenarios through an approach known as “anticipatory action.” By helping vulnerable communities prepare before disasters strike, early-action initiatives—such as cash assistance, farming support, insurance, and early-warning information—are being deployed in countries including Guatemala, Madagascar, Pakistan, and South Sudan.

“The sooner we help families prepare for these climate shocks, the greater our ability to save lives and protect livelihoods,” says Carl Skau, WFP’s Acting Executive Director.

Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, these programmes are equipping vulnerable communities with the tools needed to strengthen food security and build resilience before El Niño takes its toll—tools that also sharply reduce the costs of later response efforts.

South Sudan: acting before the river runs dry

In South Sudan, below-average rainfall and soaring temperatures—likely linked to El Niño—could deepen one of the world’s most severe hunger crises. However, well before the drought’s worst impacts materialized, humanitarian and government actors were already taking action.

In May, WFP distributed anticipatory cash assistance to 53,000 people in two of Eastern Equatoria’s hardest-hit states, including Lokale’s home of Kapoeta North.

In July, WFP joined South Sudanese authorities and aid partners in triggering the country’s first drought anticipatory action plan, targeting nearly 66,000 people.

“The assistance came when we needed it most. Without it, we would have suffered much more.” – South Sudanese farmer Lokitoe Lokale of WFP’s anticipatory support.

Families received early-warning messages to prepare for the dry months ahead, along with critical support and information on nutrition, livestock care, and water management. This support also helps reduce cases of gender-based violence, which can increase during climate shocks due to intensified economic stress and community fragmentation.

“By delivering assistance early, we helped families protect what they had and strengthened their resilience,” says Mutinta Chimuka, WFP Country Director in South Sudan.

Lokale used the WFP cash to buy basic staples like maize flour and beans, which also helped support the local economy. “The assistance came when we needed it most,” she says. “Without it, we would have suffered much more.”

Chad, Malawi, and Madagascar: mitigating weather extremes

Further west in the Sahel, below-average rainfall in Chad has triggered early El Niño mitigation efforts in seven rain-dependent provinces. WFP and partners distributed drought early-warning messages and cash assistance to more than 170,000 people.

Such initiatives aim to offset grim WFP projections that El Niño could push an additional 7.4 million people into acute food insecurity across West and Central Africa, where WFP is preparing to respond to both droughts and floods.

Agropastoralists like Oumar Abderamane Mbodou, from the west-central Chadian village of Toulba, are using WFP cash to support their families and sustain their livelihoods, including by investing in livestock feed and rainwater catchment systems.

“Without these coping mechanisms, many animals would not survive,” Mbodou says.

This latest El Niño follows its punishing 2023–24 predecessor, which unleashed massive floods in Eastern Africa and severe drought across parts of southern Africa, leaving a trail of failed harvests and widespread hunger.

As countries brace for further El Niño mayhem, Malawi is preparing for the worst, expecting to be pummelled by both flash floods and dry spells. With 2.6 million people projected to experience acute hunger during the 2026–27 lean season, WFP is scaling up contingency planning to assist 600,000 of the most vulnerable in the southern part of the country.

In Madagascar, El Niño risks worsening an already grim forecast of 3.7 million people facing crisis-level food insecurity during the October–January lean season. With the government-led MapTool drought-monitoring mechanism projecting severe drought in the south, WFP is preparing to assist 75,000 people with a package of anticipatory interventions including cash assistance, nutrition support, and early-warning information.

“WFP has supported the Government in establishing MapTool, making Madagascar the first country in Africa to take full ownership of this drought-monitoring mechanism,” said Tania Goossens, WFP Country Director in Madagascar.

Earlier this year, WFP rolled out anticipatory cash assistance and warnings ahead of another severe weather emergency: the massive and deadly Cyclone Gezani, which tore through the island, flattening buildings, uprooting trees, and affecting over 680,000 people.

“We were able to set aside provisions to face the difficult days that would follow,” recalls Pauline Tsarasoa, from eastern Madagascar.

Pakistan: from floods to drought

Asia is also braced for a mix of extreme weather. In Pakistan, the ongoing monsoon season is causing localized flooding in the northern regions, while El Niño increases drought risks in the south and west. To help communities prepare before disasters strike, WFP and UN partners are supporting the Government of Pakistan’s first national anticipatory action strategy.

WFP and authorities are identifying high-risk districts for both floods and droughts and establishing early action triggers so households can receive assistance before the worst hits.

WFP is also building on past experiences. During the 2025 floods in Pakistan’s eastern Khairpur District, for instance, WFP and the Food and Agriculture Organization provided anticipatory financial assistance and warning messages to thousands of vulnerable people.

“In the past, whenever floods came, we had no savings,” recalls Nadia Ali, a daily labourer from Khairpur. “This financial assistance provided much-needed relief and helped us cope with the challenges, including allowing us to escape during the floods.”

Protecting harvests in Central America’s Dry Corridor

Tens of thousands of kilometres away, in Central America’s Dry Corridor, farmers like Teresa Gómez are grateful for WFP’s early action support, which has reached more than 376,000 people ahead of an El Niño-projected drought expected to sear a region spanning four countries.

Gómez observes the changing weather in her community of Uriles Pinalón, in southeastern Guatemala. Rains no longer arrive as they should, a shift foreshadowed by the May zompopos, or giant queen ants, emerging from the earth. However, WFP aid—including grain silos to store and preserve staple maize and bean harvests—is cushioning dozens of communities like hers for the long dry spell ahead.

“Before, when the corn was finished, it was necessary to buy it,” Gómez says, noting how it drained precious savings.

In a small farming community in neighbouring Honduras, 69-year-old farmer Federico Medina Bardales is no stranger to failed harvests. He is grateful for WFP’s early support, which includes technical training, farm inputs, and food rations for 36,000 vulnerable people.

“This has been a huge help,” he says. “We are in a time when work cannot be found. Planting is difficult.”

WFP’s anticipatory action initiatives are made possible thanks to donors including Austria, Germany, Ireland, the Republic of Korea (KOICA), Norway (NORAD), and the United Nations CERF fund.

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