Apple is attracting investors seeking a safe haven from higher‑risk artificial intelligence stocks, according to a recent Bernstein note. The analysis follows Jensen Huang’s departure from Nvidia, which has heightened volatility in the AI trade and overall tech sector concerns. Bernstein analysts, led by Mark Newman, observe that Apple’s low correlation with technology peers now values it similarly to high‑quality consumer stocks. The company has delivered strong results even after its recent leadership transition, while confronting increased memory costs and tighter margins. Unlike many of the “Magnificent Seven,” Apple enjoys safe‑haven status because of its minimal exposure to capital‑intensive peers; its capital expenditure is under 2% of revenue. Consequently, Apple’s shares have risen amid the AI sell‑off, pushing its price‑to‑earnings ratio to a historic high. Bernstein maintains an outperform rating and a $380 price target, implying roughly 7% upside from the latest close. The market has long treated Apple as a “Costco of tech,” decoupling it from mega‑cap technology names and classifying it as a consumer compounder. Apple’s valuation stands at 37 times its projected 2027 earnings per share and roughly twice the market’s forward earnings multiple. Among firms with market caps exceeding $200 billion and expected EPS growth below 15%, forward P/E ratios above 30 are seen in Costco (46×), Walmart (39×), Apple (37×) and General Electric (36×). Apple’s projected annual revenue growth through 2029 is about 9%, surpassing Costco’s 7% and Walmart’s 5%. It also leads in free cash flow generation and shareholder returns, with an estimated 3.1% FCF yield and buybacks representing roughly 3% of market capitalization in 2027 and 3.2% in 2028, indicating near‑total distribution of cash to shareholders. Newman notes that Apple resembles a consumer‑staples stock, featuring predictable replacement demand, pricing power with suppliers and customers, limited capital needs, and consistent cash returns. Survey data show that 90% of iPhone users remain loyal when upgrading, mirroring Costco’s roughly 90% membership renewal rate. The market assigns Costco a 40× earnings multiple. On a forward‑revenue basis, Apple is the fastest‑growing consumer‑universe company and trades in line with peers on a revenue‑adjusted basis; on earnings and free cash flow, it sits modestly above the average, comparable to Ferrari and large retailers, according to Newman.
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