ArabicaCoffee Prices Rise as Brazil Harvest Delayed by Heavy Rains

September Arabica coffee (KCU26) rose 3.75 points (+1.37%), while September ICE Robusta coffee (RMU26) fell 74 points (-2.04%).

Coffee prices showed mixed movement today. Arabica prices increased as heavy rains in Brazil delayed the harvest, with Somar Meteorologia reporting 31.3 mm of rain in Minas Gerais for the week ending June 28—equivalent to 1,956% of the historical average. Robusta prices declined under pressure as ICE inventories rose to a 2.75‑month high.

Over the past two weeks coffee prices have risen sharply, with Robusta reaching a 4.5‑month high last Thursday and Arabica a 1.5‑month high last Wednesday. Continued heavy rains in Brazil are disrupting field operations and may be reducing crop quality.

ICE coffee inventories have declined over the past three months, supporting price gains. Arabica inventories dropped to a 2.25‑year low of 382,084 bags on Friday, while Robusta inventories fell to a two‑year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 before rising to a 2.75‑month high of 4,053 lots today.

Expectations that an El Niño pattern could damage Brazil’s coffee crop in the 2026/27 marketing year are bullish for prices. Trader Commercial warned that reduced rainfall in September and October may delay the normal flowering period, potentially affecting the 2026/27 harvest.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 67% chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, which could become the strongest on record. The Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern in the equatorial Pacific on June 10, indicating likely months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations that may impair coffee production in Asia and South America.

On June 9 Arabica coffee slipped to a 19‑month nearest‑futures low and Robusta to a two‑month low, as expectations grew for a bumper Brazilian harvest this year. The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, a 14% year‑over‑year increase. Rabobank also raised its estimate for the 2026/27 global Arabica surplus to 9.5 million bags, up from 7.0 million. Cecafe reported on June 11 that Brazil’s May green coffee exports rose 4.2% year‑over‑year to 2.73 million bags.

Export volumes from Vietnam, the world’s leading Robusta producer, weigh on Robusta prices. The National Statistics Office reported on June 2 that Vietnam’s coffee exports from January to May 2026 rose 7.9% year‑over‑year to 922,000 metric tons. In 2025, exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons, and production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise 6% to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct‑Sep) fell 0.3% year‑over‑year to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service bi‑annual report projected a 2.0% year‑over‑year increase in global coffee production for 2025/26, reaching a record 178.848 million bags. Arabica output is expected to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while Robusta production rises 10.9% to 83.333 million bags. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee output is forecast to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags, and Vietnam’s output is projected to increase 6.2% to 30.8 million bags, a four‑year high. Ending stocks are anticipated to drop 5.4% to 20.148 million bags, down from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

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