LONDON — A mysterious Russian-speaking operative known as “El Money” was dissatisfied with the results. A series of arson attacks targeting a vehicle and two London residences linked to British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had failed to garner significant attention, largely because the perpetrator—a 21-year-old Ukrainian recruited online—was unskilled at documenting the crimes.
One video intended to show Starmer’s former car ablaze lasted only a few seconds, while a second clip, filmed in darkness, mostly captured the repetitive sound of striking matches. El Money, seeking greater publicity, was willing to pay for better results.
On Monday, the attacker, Roman Lavrynovych, was found guilty alongside an accomplice. However, the individual or network operating under the persona of El Money has avoided both public accountability and legal punishment.
Cmdr. Dominic Murphy, a veteran investigator of state-backed sabotage who oversaw the initial probe before retiring in March, stated that the plot aligns with the hallmarks of Russian state-sponsored activity. However, he noted that proving Moscow’s involvement in a court of law is significantly more difficult than assessing threats through classified, and often incomplete, intelligence.
European officials warn that Moscow is exploiting this gap, conducting a sabotage campaign against nations supporting Ukraine. The Associated Press has tracked at least 192 such incidents across Europe since the 2022 invasion, ranging from cyberattacks and arson to attempted assassinations. When questioned by the AP in June regarding these covert operations, President Vladimir Putin dismissed the allegations, asking, “What are the specific facts? What has been proven?”
The U.K. Home Office described the fires as an “abhorrent attack” and confirmed that those responsible have been brought to justice, though the government declined to comment on whether it officially blames Russia.
Evidence presented during a six-week trial revealed that Lavrynovych was instructed to set and film the fires over several days in May 2025. El Money recruited him online, providing specific targets and instructions on how to create flammable mixtures using materials from a hardware store.
While the attacks caused no major damage or injuries, Judith Alexander, the prime minister’s sister-in-law, reported struggling to breathe after smoke filled her home during the third attack. She and her family were staying at the residence, which served as Starmer’s home before his tenure as prime minister.
“It’s all dead quiet so far — not a single article or announcement about the incident on this street,” El Money wrote to Lavrynovych via Telegram following the fire. Unbeknownst to the handler, the attacks had already alerted British counterterrorism police.
During the trial, jurors heard extensive detail on Lavrynovych’s conspiracy to commit arson, but very little regarding the architects of the plot. Lavrynovych had previously been paid to post anti-Islam graffiti and posters in London neighborhoods to incite unrest. He testified that he was offered larger sums for the arson attacks and was threatened if he refused. His lawyer, James Scobie, described his client as a “vulnerable, ignorant” puppet manipulated by a professional operator.
Scobie argued that the attacks targeted Starmer due to his support for Ukraine, calling the acts an assault on the “very institutions and fabric of this country.” Despite this, prosecutors did not bring charges under the 2023 National Security Act, meaning no evidence of a wider Moscow-linked conspiracy was presented to the court.
Justice Neil Garnham described El Money as the “central figure in the case,” but noted that very little is known about the person or group. Consequently, the jury was instructed not to speculate on the handler’s identity. Helen Flanagan, the current head of counterterrorism police, stated there was “no evidence to suggest that this was a state-backed threat,” referring specifically to the evidence admissible in court rather than classified intelligence.
European intelligence services report that Russia is increasingly recruiting online proxies with small payments to execute sabotage. In a similar case last year, a British court convicted three men for torching a London warehouse; prosecutors in that instance linked the ringleader to Russian intelligence services.
Murphy explained that there is a stark difference between intelligence assessments and the evidence required to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt in court. He noted that sensitive intelligence regarding tactics and capabilities often cannot be revealed to a jury. Investigators spend immense effort tracking digital footprints and coordinating with international partners to identify overseas actors.
According to Murphy, police evidence indicates that El Money speaks Russian and is “likely to be in Russia,” utilizing methods “very similar” to those used by Russian intelligence in the U.K., which often require high-level authorization. However, this evidence was deemed insufficient for a jury or a public attribution of blame.
The Prime Minister’s office and the Home Office declined to confirm if the government plans to attribute the attack to Russia. Counterterrorism police stated that while a thorough investigation was completed, they do not comment on intelligence matters.
British intelligence has accused Russia of probing Western allies with activities that stay just below the threshold of open warfare. Murphy emphasized that court cases are vital for raising public awareness and triggering sanctions. He called for a broader public conversation regarding the threat to critical infrastructure, stressing the need for societal resilience.
Murphy, who was a lead investigator in the 2018 attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal, noted a shift in Russian strategy. While the Skripal attack led to mass diplomatic expulsions after being attributed to Moscow, Russia has since moved toward the use of local proxies.
Shortly before his arrest, El Money reassured Lavrynovych via message: “Don’t worry, I won’t set you up.” Lavrynovych never received the promised payment.
“There is only one winner in the case,” Scobie told the court, referring to “the anonymous devil who manipulated, used and won.”
