As Iran war’s said to end, Kissinger’s joke finally has come true

During the long and bloody war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s the late Henry Kissinger used to half-joke that he wished that both sides could lose. The world now feels pretty much the same about the US-Israel-Iran war that began with 12 days of bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025 and recommenced on February 28 this year in a more intense, three-way conflict.

This time Kissinger and the world will be proved correct: when the US and Iran sign their framework deal in Switzerland on June 19, the truth will be that all three of the warring parties have lost.

After April 8, when America and Iran agreed upon a ceasefire that was supposed to last for two weeks but has so far endured for more than seven, the war descended into a bitter stalemate, one that left the Strait of Hormuz closed and sent prices for crude oil and other commodities soaring as the closure of that vital shipping route reduced supplies.

Yet the oil markets have evidently now concluded that the energy crisis is ending and that the peace deal will hold, with the price of crude oil falling back toward US$80 per barrel, more than 25% lower than its peak in early May.

The markets’ conclusion looks sound, even if nothing can be certain given the pervasive mistrust among Iran, Israel and the United States. None of those three countries has the strength to continue, and the mutual blockade of Hormuz by America and Iran is benefiting no one.

So however loudly Donald Trump threatens more bombing if Iran does not accede to his demands, however grumpily Israel and its American supporters complain that their war objectives have not been achieved and however menacingly the Iranian regime talks about renewing drone and missile attacks on its neighbors and on American bases in the region, the likelihood is that the war is over, at least for now.

This is principally because his main ally, Trump, has himself run out of options and of regional support. Among Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman there is not a single country that wants the war to be resumed. All want to export their oil, to rebuild the facilities that have been damaged by Iranian attacks and to start the long task of persuading tourists and wealthy foreign residents to return to the Gulf.

It seems clear that none of the military options presented to Trump by his generals has proved attractive to him. Resuming bomb and missile attacks would achieve little beyond further depleting American stockpiles. The idea of using ground forces to seize Iranian islands or coastal defenses, or even more ambitiously to attempt to seize Iran’s remaining stocks of enriched uranium, will have appeared far too risky and costly.

The result is that Trump’s final hope is one of trying to extract something from the peace agreement with Iran that he can claim to his American supporters is a victory.

That he will claim a victory is certain, for that is what he always does. But the claim will be an empty one. The oil markets have got what they have been expecting, namely an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with no one charging tolls and with a pledge to extend the ceasefire by a further 60 days. Beyond that, nothing concrete has yet been achieved.

Those negotiations will involve inspections by the International Atomic Energy Authority, but the reality is that they will achieve credible control over Iran’s nuclear facilities, uranium stocks and weapons ambitions only if China also agrees to become involved.

China is the only country that can consider itself a winner in the 2025-26 US-Israel-Iran war, principally because that war has weakened the United States in practical and reputational terms but also because it potentially will extend China’s influence in the Middle East. Many of the wealthy foreigners and foreign contractors that the Gulf Arab countries want to lure back to rebuild their economies are Chinese.

For Trump, this will be a war he will want to forget. It has left in disarray his hopes of using Arab money to rebuild and reshape Gaza and has displayed his own and America’s impotence. It has worsened his Republican Party’s prospects in November’s mid-term congressional elections. Most shockingly for him and his family, it hasn’t even made him any money. As far as we know.

The previous situation remains unresolved, with no clear path forward at this moment.

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