ASEAN Ministers Confront Iran Escalation, Myanmar Crisis, and South China Sea Tensions in Manila

MANILA — Southeast Asia’s top diplomats are set to voice alarm over renewed hostilities in the Middle East as they convene in the Philippine capital on Tuesday for annual ministerial talks joined by major global powers, including the United States, China, Russia, and the European Union.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) gathering, chaired this year by the Philippines, will address some of the world’s most intractable conflicts over three days. High-profile attendees include U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has been invited to a Friday ceremony commemorating ASEAN’s 1976 Treaty of Amity and Cooperation but will not participate in the core ministerial sessions attended by Lavrov and Rubio. Neither Rubio nor Lavrov has announced plans to meet bilaterally or with Sybiha during the summit.

Iran conflict dominates agenda

ASEAN foreign ministers will meet among themselves on Tuesday to discuss the escalating hostilities between the United States and Iran, which have spilled across the Middle East and raised fears of a wider regional war. Diplomats told The Associated Press the bloc plans to issue a joint statement expressing deep concern and urging both sides to return to dialogue.

The fighting has again threatened commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. Southeast Asia, home to more than 680 million people, relies heavily on Middle Eastern energy imports and suffered severe supply and price shocks from the instability. In March, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared a national energy emergency to secure fuel, food, and basic goods against hoarding and profiteering.

Washington’s military focus on the Middle East has also fueled anxiety over its commitment to the Indo-Pacific, particularly regarding China’s assertive actions in the disputed South China Sea and toward Taiwan—issues the Trump administration has pledged to deter.

Rubio engages ASEAN and Quad partners

Rubio’s presence aims to reinforce U.S. security assurances in the region. “The secretary’s visit advances a clear U.S. priority: a free and open Indo-Pacific that delivers safety, security, and prosperity for the region and for the American people,” State Department spokesperson Thomas Pigott said in Washington.

On the summit’s sidelines, Rubio is expected to join a meeting of the Quad—comprising the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. Established in 2007, the grouping is viewed as a cornerstone of the American strategy to counter Beijing’s influence, though China consistently condemns it as a containment mechanism.

Myanmar crisis and South China Sea disputes persist

Beyond external flashpoints, ASEAN faces mounting pressure to resolve internal crises, chiefly the civil war in Myanmar and territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

Since the military ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in 2021, more than 8,100 people have been killed and nearly 22,500 remain in detention, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. A five-point consensus adopted by ASEAN leaders that same year has failed to halt the violence, largely due to non-compliance by the military-backed government. Consequently, the bloc barred Myanmar’s political leaders and foreign minister from high-level meetings, including this week’s session in Manila.

In a bid to break the deadlock, ASEAN foreign ministers—led by Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro—met Myanmar’s counterpart, Tin Maung Swe, in Bangkok this month for the first formal engagement in five years. They urged a reduction in violence and renewed dialogue among all warring factions. Lazaro, serving as ASEAN’s special envoy, and Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow also met representatives of ethnic armed organizations in Pattaya the following day.

Rights groups criticized the Bangkok meeting, arguing it effectively abandoned ASEAN’s ban on engaging the junta and legitimized the generals without securing concessions. “It was not and should not be mischaracterized as an abandonment of the five-point consensus,” Lazaro countered. “The path to peace can only be obtained through resolute diplomacy with all parties to the conflict.”

In Manila, ASEAN ministers will also meet with Wang Yi to assess negotiations on a long-sought Code of Conduct aimed at preventing territorial disputes in the South China Sea from escalating. The disputes involve China, Taiwan, and ASEAN members Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, though confrontations have intensified sharply in recent years between Chinese and Philippine coast guard and naval forces.

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