A closer examination of the data suggesting China is rapidly advancing toward global biopharma dominance reveals that the region’s rise may not be as unassailable as widely perceived.
This was the consensus among a panel of pharmaceutical representatives and analysts at the 2026 Nordic Life Science Days meeting in Stockholm, Sweden, on September 9. They highlighted that while China has leveraged its recent innovations with improved asset quality and intellectual property protections, there are indications that the Asian giant’s trajectory may be reaching a plateau.
China has emerged as a key destination for Western pharmaceutical companies seeking to bolster their pipelines. According to GlobalData, licensing deals between US and Chinese biopharma companies reached record highs in 2024, marking a 280% increase from 2020. Although 2025 data is still being compiled, this trend appears to have continued. However, given the expansive in-house R&D capabilities of many US and European pharmaceutical firms, drugs developed in China still represent a small fraction of their overall pipelines.
Panellists discussed the future of China’s role in the global pharmaceutical industry. Daniel Rankin, head of strategy and corporate development at SOBI, noted that there is now an oversupply of Chinese drugs. With much of China’s industry focused on rapidly iterating upon new drugs originating from the US and Europe, he explained that there are now many mechanistically similar candidates that will struggle to secure overseas buyers.
This perspective aligns with sentiments expressed by experts interviewed by Pharmaceutical Technology at the end of 2025. They suggested that the asset pool has been depleted through high deal turnover, which will likely lead to a deceleration in the future.
Counterintuitively, a slowdown in dealmaking may also be linked to higher-quality Chinese candidates. Frances Stocks Allen, a partner at Cooley, stated, “people aren’t really going to China for a bargain anymore. The Chinese prices have remarkably increased.” She added, “demand will clearly slow down as it becomes apparent that there are not going to be as many buyers at this higher price point.”
Other Asian regions are now poised for rapid market expansion, according to Malin Jonsson Boezelman, senior director of business development at AstraZeneca. In particular, Rankin identifies India. He noted that while India may not be able to match its neighbor’s speed and scale of innovation, the country possesses the “intellectual muscle” to fuel a future rise similar to China’s past trajectory.
