AST SpaceMobile Forecast to Triple Annual Revenue by 2028 on Growing Backlog

Key Points

• Second-quarter revenue was $31.5 million, up from $1.2 million a year earlier.
• Contracted revenue backlog of about $1.3 billion spans commercial partners and the U.S. government.
• Management trimmed satellite deployment target twice in 2026 and now expects about 45 satellites in orbit in early 2027.

AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) posted Q2 revenue of $31.5 million in August, a sharp increase from $1.2 million in the year‑ago quarter. The company’s 2026 guidance calls for revenue between $150 million and $200 million, and the analyst predicts a tripling of that amount by 2028, pushing revenue above $500 million.

Image source: AST SpaceMobile.

The Ramp So Far

Revenue momentum continued in 2026. First‑quarter revenue of $14.7 million more than doubled to $31.5 million in Q2. Even the low end of the guidance implies over $100 million in the second half of the year. Sales are lumpy, driven by gateway equipment deliveries and U.S. government milestones. Q4 2025 generated $54.3 million, while Q1 2026 fell to $14.7 million. Future growth hinges on sustained government contracts and the rollout of recurring service revenue as the network becomes operational.

What Does Tripling Require

Tripling from the midpoint of the 2026 guidance (~$175 million) means achieving $500 million in 2028, which translates to roughly 70 % compound annual growth for two consecutive years. The demand side appears solid: a $1.3 billion backlog—more than six times the high end of this year’s guidance—along with over $125 million of recent U.S. government awards. More than 60 mobile network operators covering over 3 billion subscribers have signed on as partners.

Satellites remain the bottleneck. The company says 25 operational satellites can provide non‑continuous service in select markets, while 45‑60 satellites are needed for continuous coverage across the United States, Europe, and Japan. Management indicates it is funded for about 90 satellites. Currently, 13 satellites are in orbit after a summer launch campaign, and beta service with select partners is slated for later this year.

On the Q2 earnings call, President Scott Wisniewski reiterated the goal of approaching $1 billion in revenue in the first full year of commercial service—a target roughly double the analyst’s $500 million projection. The higher target depends on continuous coverage arriving on schedule, which has shown signs of delay.

Launch Timing Is the Weak Link

The deployment timeline has been revised multiple times. In March 2026 the aim was 45‑60 satellites by the end of the year. By May the range was narrowed to about 45 satellites during 2026, and by August the target slipped to roughly 45 satellites in early 2027. An April launch mishap, where a rocket’s upper stage placed the BlueBird 7 satellite into a lower‑than‑planned orbit, forced a de‑orbit of the vehicle.

Additional delays are possible, but a quarter‑or‑two lag in satellite arrivals does not erase the contracted demand. The balance sheet provides a cushion: after a $1.15 billion convertible‑note raise in July, AST SpaceMobile held more than $3.7 billion of cash on a pro‑forma basis as of June 30. Capital expenditures, however, are steep—about $1.1 billion of cash was used in the first half of 2026, and a $126 million loss was recorded on the lost satellite. At current burn rates the cash runway is under two years.

Despite these risks, the analyst expects AST SpaceMobile to surpass $500 million in revenue in 2028, even with modest launch delays. The robust backlog and expanding government contracts support this outlook.

Valuation remains a separate concern. With a market cap near $26 billion, shares trade at roughly 50 times the projected 2028 revenue and about 150 times this year’s expected revenue. Given the speculative nature of the business, the analyst would hold the stock only as a small, high‑risk position.

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