AUD/USD Forecast: Bearish Trend Persists Below 0.70

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is edging higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, following a softer-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report that delayed expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest‑rate hike. Nevertheless, AUD/USD stays within a narrow one‑week range, with technical signals suggesting limited upside potential.

At the time of writing, AUD/USD is at approximately 0.6918, having touched an intraday peak of 0.6943, the highest level seen since June 23.

Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that the US economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, far short of the market’s forecast of 110,000. Moreover, May’s payroll figures were revised downward to 129,000 from the earlier estimate of 172,000.

Technically, AUD/USD is seeking support above the 200‑day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which stands at 0.6865. However, the short‑term outlook remains bearish, as the pair has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows since its May peak of 0.7277, while still trading beneath the 100‑day SMA of 0.7074.

On the upside, the immediate resistance cluster is around the 0.7000 level. A decisive break above this barrier could lead the pair toward the 100‑day SMA at 0.7074. Only a sustained move above this zone would relieve bearish pressure and allow a more robust recovery.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded to roughly 37 after briefly entering oversold territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays below the zero line; however, the diminishing red histogram indicates that downside momentum is easing. Nonetheless, there are limited signs of a substantive trend reversal, suggesting that any rallies are likely to be modest while AUD/USD remains under the 0.7000 threshold.

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