AUD/USD Outlook: Australian Dollar Retreats Slightly from 12‑Week Peak as Bullish Sentiment Persists

On Monday, the Australian Dollar eased modestly against the US Dollar, settling at 0.7164—just below the 12‑week high of 0.7180 reached last Friday. While risk‑off sentiment pressured the currency, the US Treasury’s intention to buy long‑term securities continued to exert downward pressure on the Dollar.

Wells Fargo economists expect the Australian Dollar to remain supported as market participants watch the upcoming Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for signs that the June‑month inflation easing may persist.

The bank projects headline inflation to increase by 1.0% in July, which would lower the annual rate to 3.4%, while core inflation is expected to hold at 3.6% year‑on‑year. Strategists note that a rate hike in September or the fourth quarter remains plausible if inflation stays elevated and demand remains strong.

Technical Analysis: A moderate bearish correction looks likely

AUD/USD is currently at 0.7165, maintaining a short‑term bullish bias despite technical signs of waning momentum. The 4‑hour RSI (14) shows a bearish divergence as it retreats from oversold territory, and the MACD line has turned lower, attempting to cross the signal line—a classic bearish signal.

The downside is likely to encounter resistance near 0.7130, the August 17 high, ahead of the August 19 low just below 0.7070. On the upside, immediate resistance sits at 0.7200, a level that limited gains in late May and early June, with the next target being the year‑to‑date high around 0.7280.

US Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.14%0.13%0.13%0.53%0.15%0.20%0.19%EUR-0.14%0.00%0.02%0.39%0.02%0.12%0.06%GBP-0.13%-0.01%0.02%0.40%0.01%0.12%0.06%JPY-0.13%-0.02%-0.02%0.44%-0.07%0.06%0.03%CAD-0.53%-0.39%-0.40%-0.44%-0.46%-0.26%-0.34%AUD-0.15%-0.02%-0.01%0.07%0.46%0.11%0.06%NZD-0.20%-0.12%-0.12%-0.06%0.26%-0.11%-0.06%CHF-0.19%-0.06%-0.06%-0.03%0.34%-0.06%0.06%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

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