Australian Dollar Stays Flat as Oil Price Surge and Hawkish Fed Bets Temper Market Sentiment

The Australian Dollar traded sideways on Monday, remaining largely unchanged at 0.7165, as a surge in energy prices driven by escalating Middle East tensions pushed US Treasury yields higher. Despite the yield movement, the US Dollar did not experience a corresponding rally, leaving the AUD/USD pair flat on the session. Traders are now looking ahead to a busy US economic calendar expected later this week.

Australian Dollar Steadies as Middle East Tensions Lift Yields Ahead of Key US Data

Oil prices rose following a series of exchange of strikes between the US and Iran, suggesting that a swift resolution to the conflict is unlikely in the near term. Meanwhile, US President Trump promised a retaliatory response, stating that Iran’s strikes would remain limited, which aligns with earlier reports confirmed by Axios.

Last week, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh weighed on the Australian Dollar, signaling a potential recovery for the US Dollar. However, Monday’s economic calendar was relatively light, featuring only the release of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey, which surprised to the upside in August by exceeding consensus estimates.

Looking ahead to the Australian economic calendar, the spotlight will fall on the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August, following a previous reading of 52.0. Should the upcoming figures surpass this mark, it would signal sustained economic expansion within the manufacturing sector.

In addition to the PMI data, the schedule will include Building Permits for July, paving the way for the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures on September 2.

Australia’s Trimmed Mean CPI, released on August 26, came in at 3.6% year-on-year. This persistent core inflation reading increases the likelihood of a rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the coming months.

The minutes from the RBA’s most recent meeting revealed that the board maintained a hawkish stance, with members actively debating a 25 basis point rate hike versus holding steady. Several policymakers judged that upside inflation risks could materialize.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bullish Bias Intact Amidst Range-Bound Trading

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair trades at 0.7166, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as the spot price holds above the key simple moving average cluster around 0.7016 and a series of rising trend-line supports originating from the 0.6673–0.6897 region. Market momentum remains constructive, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in the low-60s, reinforcing buying pressure while avoiding overbought territory.

To the topside, initial resistance is observed at the horizontal barrier near 0.7198, with the longer-term descending trend line originating around 0.8015 representing the next major hurdle. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the rising trend structure starting near 0.6897, which converges with the supportive simple moving averages around 0.7016. A deeper pullback could expose additional trend-line floors at approximately 0.6865, 0.6833, and 0.6673.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Australian Dollar Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.27%-0.07%-0.19%-0.35%-0.01%-0.07%-0.12%EUR0.27%0.18%0.07%-0.08%0.22%0.23%0.15%GBP0.07%-0.18%-0.09%-0.27%0.02%0.02%-0.02%JPY0.19%-0.07%0.09%-0.18%0.16%0.14%0.09%CAD0.35%0.08%0.27%0.18%0.35%0.33%0.25%AUD0.01%-0.22%-0.02%-0.16%-0.35%-0.01%-0.04%NZD0.07%-0.23%-0.02%-0.14%-0.33%0.01%-0.05%CHF0.12%-0.15%0.02%-0.09%-0.25%0.04%0.05%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

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