Baltic and Polish Leaders Warn of Possible Russian Attacks on Critical Infrastructure

VILNIUS, Lithuania – Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda said on Wednesday that intelligence assessments indicate Russia may be preparing attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states and Poland.

President Nausėda explained that authorities are monitoring risks that could disrupt Lithuania’s energy and transport systems, including facilities that connect Lithuania to the European electricity grid.

“We have information pointing to potential limited kinetic operations focused on vital infrastructure, although no specific location or timing has been identified,” Nausėda said to Lithuania’s BNS news agency.

The intelligence suggests that provocations could be carried out via conventional or other means.

Russia dismissed the claim as an attempt to justify NATO’s military buildup in the region.

Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs issued a similar warning on Wednesday, noting that Ukraine’s growing pressure on Russia could prompt Moscow to respond with provocations against NATO’s eastern flank.

“Even without a decisive Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and the response mechanisms of the Alliance and the European Union,” Rinkēvičs said, referring to NATO’s collective defense guarantee.

“The next few months, or even the next twelve months, will be critical for Baltic security,” he added.

The four countries on NATO’s eastern flank – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland – have bolstered security around key transport and energy infrastructure in response to the Russian threat.

These states regard themselves as long‑time targets of Russian hybrid attacks, a threat that has intensified since Russia’s full‑scale invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022.

Poland reported on Tuesday and Wednesday that it intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea. The Polish government said the aircraft were conducting surveillance of Poland’s air defence systems, despite remaining несколько outside Polish territorial waters.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the Lithuanian intelligence warning, describing it as “a fresh batch of bugaboos” used to “brainwash” and prepare the population for increased militarization.

“They need to create an enemy image on the other side, ours in this case, and use it as a pretext to continue moving NATO military infrastructure into the Baltic states,” Peskov told reporters.

Nausėda’s remarks echo warnings from Polish officials in recent weeks, following media reports that Russia could carry out a limited military or hybrid provocation against Poland in the near future.

In late June, Polish media outlet onet.pl reported that U.S. intelligence had warned its Polish counterparts about a potential Russian attack. The report cited scenarios that could include attacks on critical infrastructure, incursions by Russian soldiers near border areas, and drone operations.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on 3 July that the warnings should be taken seriously and that Poland had been issuing similar alerts for weeks.

“Poland is preparing very intensively for various scenarios,” Tusk said. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but the coming months, also because of the changing nature of the war in Ukraine, could be critical.”

Tusk noted that concerns were especially pronounced in the Baltic states.\n“We are not afraid; we are preparing for various scenarios, but we cannot take this lightly,” he said. “We are conscious of the dangers also because of information coming from our allies.”

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that Poland had a message for Russian President Vladimir Putin: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”

General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Lithuania’s chief of defence, confirmed that the military had deployed additional forces to protect strategic infrastructure病例 in response to potential Russian provocations.

Vaikšnoras told reporters that Russia’s recent rhetoric targeting the Baltic states and Poland serves a broader purpose: eroding public trust in state institutions, the military and the government.

Poland had similarly increased protection of key infrastructure after an attack on rail infrastructure in November, blamed on Russia.

On Monday, the European Union announced that Russia’s FSB Center 16 had conducted cyber‑espionage and sabotage against defence industries and critical infrastructure across Europe, including a December attack on a Polish combined heat and power plant that supplies heat to almost 500,000 customers.

A recent report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank said that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, repeatedly disrupting civilian aviation between 2024 and 2026.

The Baltic region is also under strain from stray Ukrainian drones that have reached Baltic countries as Ukraine ramps up attacks on ports used for Russian energy exports.

In mid‑May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigned over the government’s handling of multiple incidents involving stray drones suspected to be from Ukraine crossing into Latvian territory.

In late May, for the first time in a NATO and EU capital, Lithuanian residents were pictured sheltering in underground parking garages in Vilnius as authorities warned of unidentified drone activity.

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