Germany’s year-end state elections have reshaped its political landscape, with the Left Party securing a victory in Berlin and the AfD claiming the lead in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU endured significant losses in both regions, while the SPD achieved substantial gains under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig.
According to the latest Infratest dimap projection in Berlin, the Left Party leads with approximately 25.3% of the vote. The CDU places second at 19.1%, followed by the AfD and the Greens. The SPD has slipped further behind, while the BSW barely surpasses the parliamentary threshold.
This outcome dismantles the previous CDU-SPD coalition majority in the capital. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD holds a commanding lead at nearly 40%, closely trailed by the SPD. The CDU posts its worst historical result in the state at just 4.9%, while the Left, Greens, and BSW hover around or just above the threshold required for parliamentary entry.
Merz Condemns Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania Result as a ‘Disaster’
Chancellor Friedrich Merz refused to sugar-coat the CDU’s performance in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, calling it a “disaster.” In a statement from the party’s Berlin headquarters, he noted his party had been “squeezed out” as the race narrowed to a two-horse contest between the SPD and AfD.
If the CDU remains below the 5% threshold in the final tally, it would mark the first time the party fails to secure seats in any state legislature across Germany.
By contrast, in Berlin, CDU lead candidate Stefan Evers achieved a “respectable result” despite facing a challenging starting position, Merz added.
Merz then addressed the broader national context, stating that Germany had grown overly complex and its economy was undergoing profound transformation. He noted that public discourse was growing increasingly heated and trust in institutions was waning. He urged further reforms, arguing that the resulting disruption and unpopularity must be accepted.
He concluded by warning of the “authoritarian poison” infiltrating society through a “fascination with authoritarianism.” As both CDU leader and chancellor, he pledged to take responsibility, insisting Germany must once again become a “country of new beginnings.”
AfD Leads in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Schwesig Could Retain Office
Following the election, AfD lead candidate Leif-Erik Holm asserted the right to form the next state government. He stated the party would “naturally also talk to all the other parties” to “get things moving,” emphasizing, “It’s about the people of our state. We want to improve politics,” in an interview with ARD.
Regarding potential cooperation, Holm highlighted that the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is not under surveillance by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution. He described the party’s platform as “conservative,” focusing on education, the economy, and security.
Consequently, SPD Minister-President Manuela Schwesig could remain in office despite the AfD’s lead. Throughout her campaign, she positioned herself at the center of the SPD’s efforts with the slogan “Woman against Blue,” a direct reference to the AfD’s party color.
In a ZDF interview, Schwesig called it the “toughest state election” her party has ever faced, stating the SPD countered the AfD “with substance, with people, with clarity and with a united effort.” Her political record also includes previous support for Nord Stream 2.
In 2021, her state government established the Foundation for Climate and Environmental Protection MV, which supported the pipeline’s construction. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Schwesig acknowledged her earlier stance was a mistake. During a 2024 visit to Kyiv, she declared that “Ukraine must win this war” and endorsed further arms deliveries.
Berlin’s ‘Mamdani Effect’
Berlin’s Left Party centered its campaign on social issues and affordable housing, with lead candidate Elif Eralp drawing inspiration from New York. After left-wing Democrat Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral victory, Eralp told the dpa: “If a left-wing candidate can win in New York, then there’s no reason it can’t happen in Berlin.”
The Left has now emerged as Berlin’s strongest party for the first time. Should Eralp become governing mayor, she would be the first mayor of Berlin with a migrant background; her parents fled Turkey for Germany in 1980, and Eralp was born in Munich.
The housing crisis was central to Eralp’s campaign, where she advocated for stricter rent regulation, expanded social housing, and further steps toward public ownership of large housing portfolios.
The Left is the successor to the former East German ruling party, the SED (Socialist Unity Party of Germany). Following the fall of the Berlin Wall, the SED rebranded as the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism), retaining some assets and personnel, before eventually becoming known as the Left.
The election victory leaves the party with the difficult task of forming a government. While the SPD and Greens have not ruled out cooperating with the Left, both stressed that any alliance depends on how the party addresses antisemitism. SPD lead candidate Steffen Krach stated before the election at an event hosted by Berlin’s Jewish community: “If there are antisemitic incidents, then it’s over. Simple as that.”
The issue was highlighted by rapper Dahabflex’s appearance at a Left campaign event in Berlin’s Neukölln borough, where chants including “Death to the IDF” and “Yalla Yalla Intifada” were heard.
Eralp distanced herself from the remarks, calling for an investigation and consequences. The Greens also set a clear condition, with lead candidate Werner Graf stating his party would not sign a coalition agreement lacking a firm stance against antisemitism.
Eralp, for her part, emphasized that the overwhelming majority of the Left supports protecting Jewish life. She acknowledged that antisemitism is a societal issue and exists within the Left, stating her desire to protect Jewish, Palestinian, and Muslim communities.
