Bernstein Forecasts Bitcoin Could Reach $300,000 Within Three Years Amid Debasement Trade Revival

The debasement trade is seeing a resurgence, which could push bitcoin to a new record high, according to Bernstein. The leading digital asset may climb to $300,000 per coin by the end of 2029, the firm’s analysts said in a client note released Wednesday. That represents a gain of about 285 %—nearly four times—from its most recent price.

Using their price‑to‑marginal‑cost model, the analysts forecast the next market peak at $300 K by CY2029E and expect bitcoin to revisit a fresh all‑time high of $150,000 by mid‑2027, said Gautam Chhugani, author of the note.

The outlook follows renewed interest in the debasement trade—shifting into tangible or scarce assets to hedge against a weakening U.S. dollar—as worries mount over the nation’s debt load and persistent inflation. Earlier this month, U.S. federal debt surpassed a record $40 trillion, roughly double the level seen in 2016, prompting investors to raise alarms. Soon after, the Treasury Department expanded debt buybacks to cap bond yields, further fueling concerns that the dollar may lose strength.

Consequently, bitcoin is regaining momentum, crossing the $80,000 threshold on Monday for the first time since May. The token last traded around $78,045, up roughly 21 % over the past month.

That rally could also lift Strategy Inc., the world’s largest corporate holder of bitcoin, and its high‑yield perpetual preferred stock, Bernstein noted. “Strategy remains the top corporate owner of bitcoin, holding about 4 % of the global supply. Its balance sheet has stabilized, delivering roughly 3.9 times annual dividend coverage, and its STRC perpetual preferred stock is recovering toward $97,” Chhugani wrote. “If bitcoin’s strength continues and STRC moves back toward $100, we could see Strategy resume aggressive bitcoin purchases.”

Bernstein maintains an outperform rating on Strategy, even after trimming its 12‑month price target to $350 from $450. The revised target still implies about 176 % upside from Tuesday’s closing price. The firm’s view aligns with the broader Wall Street consensus: LSEG data show 18 of 20 analysts covering Strategy rate the stock a buy or strong buy. Year‑to‑date, Strategy shares are down nearly 20 %, and they sit roughly 65 % below their level a year ago.

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