Bernstein Initiates Affirm Coverage at Outperform, Cites Converging Growth Drivers for BNPL Leader

Bernstein has initiated coverage of Affirm Holdings with an outperform rating and a $100 price target, implying roughly 34% upside from the prior session’s close. Analyst Harshita Rawat argues the buy-now-pay-later provider sits at a “unique intersection of several tailwinds,” including an expanding total addressable market, compounding network effects, and multiple optionality levers.

“The TAM is sizable, no matter how you slice it,” Rawat wrote in a note to clients Tuesday. She emphasized that Affirm’s product velocity continually broadens that opportunity into new verticals, channels, and merchant partnerships. Currently, BNPL accounts for approximately 5% of U.S. e-commerce sales and just 1% of overall card spend, leaving substantial runway for adoption.

Rawat highlighted that e-commerce giants such as Amazon and Shopify are increasingly integrating BNPL to boost conversion rates and average order values, a dynamic that should accelerate mainstream usage. The bullish stance aligns with broader Wall Street sentiment: 25 of the 34 analysts tracked by LSEG rate Affirm a buy or strong buy. Shares have traded largely flat year-to-date.

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