BHP’s Share Rises 41% Amid Copper Demand Surge and Strategic Growth in Electrification Sectors

BHP’s copper cathode in strong demand. Photographer: Damian Lemanski/Bloomberg

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Australian miner BHP, the world’s largest mining entity, is set to deliver its highest dividend in four years amid robust demand for its core commodities—copper and iron ore. This surge underscores its pivotal role in supplying materials critical to the global transition toward electrification and advanced technologies.

For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025, BHP reported a 30% increase in underlying profit, reaching $13.2 billion. This followed a 15% rise in annual revenue to $58.8 billion, driven by elevated commodity prices and operational efficiency. The company declared a final dividend of 99 cents per share, complementing a prior half-year payout of 73 cents, culminating in a full-year payout of $1.72 per share.

BHP’s strategic shift from its historical reliance on Western Australian iron ore operations to a forward-looking copper-centric model has gained traction. Copper, dubbed the “engine room” of BHP’s growth, accounted for over half of its underlying EBITDA and generated substantial free cash flow, enabling self-funded expansion. This positioning has attracted investor confidence, particularly as copper demand escalates alongside the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers.

BHP’s iron ore division remains a cornerstone of profitability, maintaining near-par EBITDA levels at $14.5 billion compared to $14.4 billion the previous year. Meanwhile, its coal segment, impacted by Australian taxation, saw EBITDA climb to $832 million—significantly higher than the prior year’s $573 million.

Front-line developments highlight BHP’s diversification efforts. The company’s Canadian Jansen Potash Project, poised to commence production in mid-2026, aims to achieve 84% completion of its first phase. CEO Brandon Craig emphasized its 60-year operational lifespan and importance in addressing global food security through fertilizer production.

While BHP’s share price has surged 41% year-to-date to A$64.72 ($45.30), market analysts caution against overvaluation. RBC Capital Markets, citing positive prospects but flagging potential overaggressiveness, revised its price target downward to A$57 ($39.90), reflecting an 11.4% markdown.

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