Bitcoin Nears $77K Amid Oil Price Drop and Asian Market Rally as Iran Peace Talks Progress

Bitcoin traded slightly above $77,000 on Monday as a sharp decline in oil prices helped boost Asian stock markets. The leading cryptocurrency by market value was near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, representing a 0.4% gain from midnight UTC according to CoinDesk data. At this level, bitcoin remained above its key 50-day simple moving average of approximately $76,940, a technical level that traders closely monitor for bullish signals.

Other major cryptocurrencies also posted modest gains, with XRP and Solana (SOL) rising at least 0.6% and Ether (ETH) gaining 0.4%. Nevertheless, all three tokens continued trading below their respective 50-day moving averages.

West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell more than 5% to around $91 per barrel, extending a decline from the previous week’s high above $104. This drop in energy prices coincided with broad-based gains across Asian equity markets, where India’s Nifty rose over 1%, Japan’s Nikkei jumped nearly 3%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.4%.

The market momentum followed weekend reports indicating progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping channel responsible for over 20% of global oil flows prior to the Iran conflict that began in late February. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps confirmed allowing more than 20 tankers through the strait, although volumes remain below pre-war levels.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that Washington and Iranian negotiators have “a pretty solid thing on the table” and expressed optimism that a deal to end the conflict could be finalized Monday. While the U.S. remains committed to exhausting diplomatic options, it has indicated willingness to consider alternative measures if negotiations stall.

Despite near-term optimism, analysts maintain a cautious stance on bitcoin due to ongoing institutional selling pressure. More than $2 billion has exited spot ETFs over the past two weeks, raising concerns about sustained downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.

“The key signal for crypto is whether ETF outflows slow,” said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN. “Bitcoin can handle some institutional selling if stablecoin liquidity remains firm and long-term holders stay patient. However, sustained ETF redemptions would make every rally more difficult to sustain.”

CoinSwitch, a Mumbai-based exchange registered with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit, emphasized that lasting bitcoin gains would require confirmation of a U.S.-Iran peace agreement. “Sentiment improved following reports of progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks, including potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, helping BTC rebound toward $77K,” the exchange noted. “However, the deal remains unconfirmed, so traders are not yet fully risk-on. Additionally, exchange data bears watching—18,528 BTC net moved into centralized exchanges, suggesting potential sell-side pressure.”

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