The emerging technical signal suggests that Bitcoin’s three-month rebound may have broader significance than a short-term price recovery. The cryptocurrency has surged more than 40% during the third quarter to reach $87,000, although its recent gains have stalled around $85,000 amid continued strength in the U.S. Dollar Index.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj said.
Several past alignments have marked the beginning of major rallies. One formed on Oct. 27, 2020, when BTC was trading near $13,600, and held until May 2021. By that point, Bitcoin had climbed to a then-record high above $64,000. Another, confirmed in early November 2023, remained intact until May 2024, during which time the price more than doubled from roughly $35,000 to $73,000.
Other setups have produced far less impressive results. A bullish alignment that emerged in June 2025 lasted 97 days, but Bitcoin advanced only modestly, rising from about $106,000 to $112,000. A similar formation in June 2024 persisted for just 20 days, after which the price fell by about 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj said. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
He noted that the critical test will be whether Bitcoin can continue trading above its 50-day average.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he said.
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