Bitcoin Slips Below $81,000 Despite Expected Fed Pause as Macro Risks Loom

Bitcoin fell below the $81,000 threshold on Oct. 8, dipping to an intraday low of approximately $80,800. This decline occurred even as market participants widely anticipated that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates during its October meeting.

The September FOMC minutes, released on Oct. 7, indicated that the majority of officials view another rate increase before the end of the year as probable, emphasizing that future decisions would remain heavily data-dependent. Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s remarks on Oct. 8 further highlighted the extended trajectory of this policy path.

A Pause Delays the Next Hike

Waller pointed to futures pricing as of Oct. 7, which assigned an 85% probability to at least one additional rate hike by December. The same market indicators projected nearly an 80% chance of at least two hikes by March 2027, with a 33% probability of three or more increases.

These cumulative, market-implied probabilities suggest that while the Fed can skip individual meetings, further hikes remain likely if economic data evolves as expected. An October hold merely postpones the next increase on the calendar, while the policy path into 2027 remains steep.

On Oct. 8, the 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.305% and the 2-year yield stood at 4.821%, with Brent crude oil trading at $104.87. Persistent oil prices keep inflation risks alive, and elevated yields continue to increase the cost of capital for risk assets, even if the central bank skips an upcoming meeting.

According to a Glassnode report from Oct. 7, combined spot exchange and US Bitcoin spot ETF volumes averaged near $6.8 billion daily, which is lower than roughly 90% of observations since January 2024. Estimated new capital inflows from ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate treasury acquisitions totaled $4.9 billion, while the realized capital grew by $12.8 billion over a 30-day period—accounting for less than 40% of the total.

The recent price appreciation relied heavily on existing capital repricing existing coins, leaving the market with shallow buying depth to absorb sudden sell-offs. By press time, CoinGlass registered over $1 billion in liquidations within the past 24 hours, with $930 million of those positions tied to long trades.

Bitcoin’s $81,000 Zone Gave Way

A day prior, Glassnode highlighted a modeled cluster of long liquidations positioned between $81,700 and $83,300, alongside substantial buy orders on Binance near the $81,000 to $81,250 range. These modeled zones indicated where heavy positioning was concentrated, and the intraday low successfully crossed below these levels. Liquidation cascades amplified the downward move, though macroeconomic forces are widely supported as the primary initiating catalyst.

If buyers manage to rebuild above the $85,500 reclaim threshold with increased spot volume, Bitcoin will encounter a concentration of sell orders between $86,500 and $86,750. Beyond that level lies Glassnode’s largest one-year cluster of liquidation levels above the current price, spanning from $87,100 to $95,900 and peaking heavily near $92,000. Reclaiming this zone could trigger widespread short covering, potentially transforming the rate pause into a bullish catalyst.

Conversely, if buyers fail to rebuild the market structure, Glassnode’s next modeled liquidation cluster sits near $75,000, serving as a critical reference level for the downside. The cryptocurrency faces key macroeconomic tests ahead, including the September CPI report on Oct. 14, the Oct. 27-28 FOMC meeting, and the subsequent Dec. 8-9 meeting.

An October pause merely delays the next rate hike, forcing Bitcoin to maintain its structural integrity through critical inflation data and two Federal Reserve meetings on a relatively thin base of active buyers.

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