Bitcoin hovered near $62,000 on Thursday, retreating slightly from a recent rebound that lifted prices to $64,000 after hitting a bear-market low of $57,700 the prior week. While the pullback keeps the cryptocurrency above the $60,000 support threshold identified by CryptoQuant, it tempers an 11% recovery from the recent trough.
The decline coincided with CryptoQuant’s Weekly Crypto Report, which presented a cautiously optimistic outlook despite lingering bearish conditions. Head of Research Julio Moreno characterized the bounce as a bear-market recovery rather than a definitive trend shift, highlighting the Bull Score Index—a 0-to-100 composite metric tracking on-chain activity, market dynamics, and valuations—sitting at 20. This reading falls within the bearish zone (below 40) and remains far from the 60+ threshold historically associated with sustained bull markets.
The report’s bullish argument hinges on seasonal trends: July has historically been one of Bitcoin’s stronger months, with consistent gains in 10 of the past 12 years, including 2018 and 2022. Entering July 2026 amid a prolonged downtrend, the analysis suggests potential for near-term upside, though structural weaknesses persist.
Demand Indicators Suggest a Shift
Demand metrics have begun to signal a potential inflection point. The 30-day change in total demand—encompassing both spot and perpetual futures—plummeted to -650,000 BTC in early June, its weakest level since 2022, as prices approached $58,000. However, speculative futures demand has recently turned positive, while spot selling has slowed to its lowest pace since mid-May, hinting at a possible resurgence in buying interest.
Institutional activity in the U.S. also shows signs of stabilization. Coinbase’s Premium Index, a proxy for domestic spot demand, dipped below zero in early June but has since moved in line with Bitcoin’s recovery, indicating renewed institutional engagement.
On-chain valuation measures further bolster confidence. The unrealized profit/loss margin for 30- to 90-day coin holdings fell below -24% in early June, breaching the -12% undervaluation threshold. Such extremes often signal local troughs, as short-term holders exit positions. The margin has since improved alongside Bitcoin’s rebound from $57,700.
Despite these signals, today’s price dip highlights lingering uncertainty. While market internals show gradual improvement, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index—currently in bearish territory—suggests the broader regime remains intact. A confirmed bull market, the report notes, would require the index to surpass 60, a threshold that underscores the fragility of the current recovery.
