Bitcoin’s $16 Billion Quarterly Options Expiry Looms with Heavy Call Concentration

Open Interest Distribution

The $70,000 strike holds the highest number of open contracts, with call options at this level now deeply in the money.

According to Strijers, 55% of the $9.4 billion in call options set to expire are currently in the money. In contrast, put options are largely out of the money and hold minimal value. Overall, approximately one-third of the total $15.9 billion options book is in the money.

An option is considered “in the money” when it possesses intrinsic value, meaning the market price of the underlying asset is favorable relative to the strike price. For call options, this occurs when the underlying price trades above the strike; for put options, it happens when the price trades below.

Jean-David Péquignot, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit, noted that the open interest distribution across various strike prices points to a potential price floor around $75,000.

“Open interest is heavily concentrated at the $85k, $90k, $95k, and $100k call strikes, underscoring the ongoing influence of large 85k/90k/95k/100k call condor blocks that are now coming directly into play as spot trades near $86k,” Péquignot explained. “On the put side, defensive structures are firmly anchored at $60k, $70k, and $75k, creating a multi-layered support floor.”

What Happens on Expiry Day?

The upcoming Friday expiry could introduce short-term volatility, potentially resetting the trading range for Bitcoin’s spot price.

This volatility is expected because, as Strijers explained, the expiry will unwind and clear out dealer-related hedging positions.

Source link