Bitcoin’s Price Deviates from $72,000 Max Pain Theory Amid $10B Options Expiry

Bitcoin’s BTC$61,646.55 price decline ahead of Friday’s quarterly options settlement challenges the widely accepted “max pain theory.”

The max pain threshold for this cycle is set at $72,000, far exceeding current spot prices near $61,700. At 8:00 ET on Friday, Deribit’s options market will settle $10 billion in contracts, a key event that could amplify market dynamics.

Max pain theory posits that options writers manipulate prices toward this threshold to minimize their losses. This concept gained traction after BTC frequently approached these levels near past expiry dates between 2020-2021. While some of this correlation may stem from coincidental market behavior, the theory remains influential in crypto discourse.

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