Recent data supports Bitcoin’s resilience against dollar strength, according to correlation analysis. Over the past 90 trading days, Bitcoin (BTC) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) have shown a correlation of -0.41, as tracked by TradingView data analyzed by CoinDesk. This negative correlation indicates that the assets typically move in opposite directions, a trend most pronounced since February 2023.
While this inverse relationship exists, its practical relevance remains limited. The correlation’s R-squared value of 0.17 suggests the dollar accounts for only 17% of Bitcoin’s daily return variations, highlighting its relatively minor influence.
Short-term trends reveal more volatility. The 30-day correlation stands at -0.45, but this is weighted by two specific days—August 19 and September 3—when Bitcoin surged over 5% alongside a declining dollar. Excluding these outliers, the correlation weakens to -0.19, underscoring the noise in short-term movements.
Examining longer periods shows an even looser connection. Since January 2020, the 90-day correlation has averaged -0.14, occasionally turning positive, with a peak of +0.22 observed in November 2024. Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. Treasury yields also remains negligible, reinforcing its potential as a portfolio diversifier driven by independent market factors.
This relative independence positions Bitcoin as an asset class less tied to traditional financial metrics, making its long-term dynamics worth monitoring closely.
