Black Sea Drone Strikes Test Turkey’s Role as NATO’s Naval Gatekeeper

A series of deadly drone strikes against cargo vessels in Bulgarian and Romanian waters has prompted NATO to convene an emergency security meeting on the Black Sea. However, deploying alliance naval forces depends on Turkey reversing its long-standing refusal to permit warships into the region.

On Thursday, two chemical tankers were struck by drones near a Romanian port. The incidents follow two similar attacks in Bulgarian waters over the past week, leaving more than 20 sailors dead or missing.

“The war has arrived in full force on the Black Sea,” said Yoruk Isik, a maritime analyst and operator of the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy. “Compared with the start of the conflict, drone technology has fundamentally disrupted maritime traffic.”

Isik added that the latest strikes highlight the widening scope of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “Russian and Ukrainian ports have been heavily targeted, but now vessels are being struck even in NATO waters—off Bulgaria and Romania,” he said.

“We have reached a point where there is no safe place,” he said.

The latest attacks targeted vessels along a critical Ukrainian shipping corridor, with NATO viewing Russia as the prime suspect as Moscow intensifies its campaign against Ukrainian trade.

Following Thursday’s meetings with the Bulgarian and Romanian leaders, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance would “continue to work closely with our Black Sea allies, adjusting our deterrence and defence posture as needed.”

Romanian President Nicușor Dan announced that NATO would hold a crisis meeting next week to address the situation.

Turkey’s Gatekeeper Role in the Black Sea

NATO could deploy air-defence systems to counter drone threats in Bulgarian and Romanian waters.

Any naval deployment, however, depends on Turkey. As a NATO ally, Ankara controls access to the Black Sea through the Turkish Straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, a long-standing international treaty.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ankara has barred Russian and Ukrainian warships, as well as military vessels from NATO members lacking a Black Sea coastline, citing the need for a diplomatic resolution.

In recent weeks, the Turkish government has attempted to negotiate a commercial shipping ceasefire without success. Isik argues that this failure, combined with the latest escalation, is increasingly undermining Ankara’s reliance on diplomacy alone.

“Either a breakthrough leads the Kremlin to de-escalate, or Ankara must accept that a more credible military presence is required—larger vessels have to come,” the analyst said.

He noted that the Romanian and Bulgarian navies are not equipped to manage such an operation independently, relying on ageing Cold War-era vessels nearing the end of their service lives.

“Consequently, Turkish involvement is essential to any effective NATO strategy in the Black Sea,” he said.

Moscow’s Leverage Over Ankara

Despite recent attacks on Turkish-owned cargo vessels and Ankara’s deep dependence on Black Sea trade, Turkey has so far kept its powerful navy on the sidelines.

Huseyin Bagci, an international relations expert at Ankara’s Middle East Technical University, said Turkey fears conflict escalation and remains reluctant to permit NATO ships into the Black Sea.

“I do not believe the government would dare,” Bagci said. “It likely views such a move as a provocation intended to draw Turkey into the war. Turkey fears involvement in the Black Sea against Russia—a historical trauma in the national consciousness.”

Moscow also holds substantial leverage over Ankara, he suggested.

Russia’s state nuclear company Rosatom is nearing completion of a multibillion-dollar nuclear power station in Akkuyu, southern Turkey—a project Ankara considers vital to reducing its heavy reliance on imported energy. “It is illogical to oppose Russia while allowing Russian firms to complete the nuclear plant,” Bagci said.

Ankara also recognizes that admitting NATO vessels while excluding Russian warships could provoke Moscow to challenge Turkey’s prized status as gatekeeper to the Black Sea.

However, retired Turkish diplomat Selim Kuneralp, an expert on the Montreux Convention, warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely already targeting Turkey’s control over Black Sea access.

“This has probably affected Russia’s ability to wage war, and I doubt Putin is satisfied with the situation,” Kuneralp said. “If he emerges victorious, there is a strong risk he will demand an end to these restrictions, insisting on unrestricted warship passage regardless of whether a war is under way.”

As a signatory to the convention, Moscow holds the right to request a revision of the Montreux Convention every five years.

For centuries, Russia fought repeated wars with the Ottoman Empire for control of the Turkish Straits. During the early Cold War, Joseph Stalin attempted a similar move, only to be thwarted by U.S. intervention.

Today, Ankara walks a tightrope between Moscow and its NATO partners to avoid reigniting those historical rivalries.

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