Brazil becomes next test for Latin America’s surging conservative movement

Brazil’s Presidential Race Signals Momentum in Latin America’s Right-Wing Surge

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Brazil’s estimated 158 million voters could advance Latin America’s conservative wave in Sunday’s election as the continent’s most populous nation could elect conservative Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro as its next president.

The first round election three weeks ago saw a strong performance by Blsonaro, proving the polls wrong. While incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) had been predicted to take the first round by single digits, Bolsonaro ended up winning 47% to Lula’s 45%. As neither candidate won a majority, the election went to a second round.

Brazil’s election follows a long string of victories for the Latin American right across Central and South America that started with the election of Libertarian outsider Javier Milei in Argentina in 2023.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, left, and Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, right, face off in a presidential election runoff. (Getty Images)

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2025 saw a right-wing sweep across the region, as Ecuador, Bolivia, Honduras and Chile all voted for conservative heads of state.

In 2026, Keiko Fujimori narrowly defeated a left-wing candidate to win the Peruvian presidency, while most recently, in Colombia, conservative attorney Abelardo de la Espriella bested left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda.

Bolsonaro’s slate of congressional candidates also fared well, ensuring that Brazil will have one of the most conservative congresses in years, and a legislative branch aligned with Bolsonaro’s goals, or ready to thwart Lula’s agenda.

The two candidates met Friday night for the final debate in Rio de Janeiro, which featured a series of questions organized around Brazil’s five geographic regions. While the debate featured some heated personal exchanges, it appears unlikely to have moved the needle in either direction heading into a close race.

Colombian President Abelardo De la Espriella holds a press conference with the mayor of Bogota and newly appointed city manager Clara Lucia Sandoval in Bogota, on Aug. 25, 2026. (Sebastian Barros/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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President Donald Trump has heralded these electoral results as vindication for his hardline approach to security, crime, and migration policies, as well as a stamp of approval for the new Shield of the Americas initiative.

The Trump administration counts on considerably more close allies now than it did at the beginning of Trump’s second term.

Yet, the question remains: why is the region resoundingly rejecting the left and progressivism?

Argentina’s President Javier Milei arrives for the inauguration of Colombia’s President Abelardo de la Espriella in Cali, Colombia, Friday, Aug. 7, 2026. (Matias Delacroix/AP Photo)

Many of the elections have been won by narrow margins, with Brazil being a case in point: Lula bested Jair Bolsonaro in 2022 by just 1.8%.

While many Latin American nations remain deeply polarized, there is no denying a right-wing resurgence.

Commentators appear to be expressing a rejection of progressive movements amid growing concerns over safety and security, giving approval to proposals to dramatically ramp up police and military presence to combat crime and drug trafficking.

Meanwhile, leftist parties seem unable to capitalize on recurring concerns over inflation and kitchen table economics, which have played into the hands of the Latin American right, as working class and middle class voters have felt the pinch of rising food, housing and energy costs.

In addition to social and economic concerns, the specter of Jair Bolsonaro also looms over the election. Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence on house arrest for allegedly plotting a coup in the wake of the 2022 election.

Lula was also sentenced to a 12-year prison sentence on corruption charges stemming from the infamous Operation Car Wash, until he was freed on a technicality by the Brazilian Supreme Court, and rose from the ashes to win the 2022 presidential election.

Brazil’s right-wing senator and presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) gestures next to federal deputy and candidate for governor of Rio de Janeiro, Douglas Ruas (L) during a campaign rally on the eve of the general election, in Campo Grande neighborhood, in the western zone of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 3, 2026. Brazilians go to the polls on Oct.r 4, 2026 (Douglas SHINEIDR / AFP via Getty Images)

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