Vote counting is underway in Brazil following Sunday’s presidential election, with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro aims to carry forward the right-wing populist movement launched by his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, while Lula seeks a fourth non-consecutive term in office.
With nearly 99% of ballots processed, Flavio Bolsonaro has secured 47.2% of the vote, while Lula trails at 45%, according to the electoral court.
Since no candidate secured an outright majority on Sunday, officials confirmed that Bolsonaro and Lula will face off in a runoff.
Bolsonaro is monitoring the tally in Brasilia, the capital, while Lula follows results from Sao Paulo.
Because Brazil uses electronic voting machines, final results are expected within hours of polls closing.
Right gains momentum in Brazil
Fabio de Sa e Silva, a professor of Brazilian studies at the University of Oklahoma, told DW that the right is currently on the rise in Brazil, complicating Lula’s efforts to shift the electoral trajectory.
“He still has a chance, based on the numbers, but the momentum is with the right,” said de Sa e Silva.
“The big news tomorrow will be not that we have a runoff… but it is a takeover that happened in Congress by the far-right,” the researcher said.
He added that it will be very hard for Lula to govern with Brazil’s new Congress, even if he ultimately secures another term.
Lula vows to ‘defeat the far right’
Lula and Bolsonaro wrapped up their campaigns on Saturday in Sao Paulo, Brazil’s economic powerhouse.
The 80-year-old Lula capped off his campaign with a tour through Sao Paulo, vowing to “defeat the far right.”
Organizers said roughly 150,000 supporters turned up for the rally in Brazil’s largest city.
Lula has campaigned on continuing his left-leaning Workers’ Party platform, comprising welfare programs, state-funded development, and income redistribution.
“The people will have to choose between strengthening the democratic regime and barbarism … between progress and backwardness,” he said as he cast his ballot on Sunday.
Bolsonaro calls for ‘change’
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, has served as the Liberal Party’s senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019. On Saturday, he led a motorcycle parade through Sao Paulo’s countryside cities of Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana.
He also held up a portrait of his father, while the crowd shouted “mito” — a Portuguese word for “legend” that Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters use to refer to him.
The right-wing Bolsonaro has campaigned on hardline security policies and tax cuts, emphasizing the high cost of living under Lula, whom he has labeled “incompetent.”
“Brazil needs change,” the son of the former president said as he cast his vote. “Brazil cannot bear any more suffering, such as high taxes, so many women killed.”
Brazil’s 2022 election rematch
The elder Bolsonaro is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his loss to Lula in the 2022 presidential election. Flavio Bolsonaro has vowed to pardon his father if elected.
Lula’s team has framed the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to Brazil’s sovereignty, pointing to Flavio and Jair’s ties with US President Donald Trump, who last year imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial. The US president called the case a “witch hunt.”
What happens next?
Brazil finds itself politically divided, and campaigning has been bitter, with online operations from both sides seizing on every gaffe, accusation, and rumor, quickly producing slick videos and AI-generated images for social media.
In September, it was revealed Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering, and tax evasion tied to the financing of a biopic about his father. He has denied any misconduct.
Brazilians vote in high-stakes presidential election
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The younger Bolsonaro has said in interviews he is “more moderate” than his father, who he has nevertheless said will remain “my compass, my point of reference.”
Policies where both Bolsonaros align include relaxed gun control laws and skepticism of human-caused climate change.
Trump has not endorsed the senator, but has said he is watching the election “very closely.”
What happens next?
The latest polling for the first round shows Lula at 46% and Bolsonaro at 45%, according to the Brazilian data firm Quaest cited by Reuters.
In a potential runoff, the Quaest poll shows Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
In 2022, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by only 1.8 percentage points.
Along with voting for president, Brazil’s 160 million registered voters are also choosing other lawmakers, governors, and some senators.
Who is Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro?
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Brazil election: Lula, Bolsonaro focus on women’s vote
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