Brazilians will head to the polls on Sunday for a highly unpredictable runoff, as left‑wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks an unprecedented comeback against far‑right senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the first‑round winner.
Bolsonaro’s unexpected win, despite trailing most polls, made him the favorite three weeks ago; however, Lula’s campaign has closed the gap, leaving the two candidates virtually tied.
Their first‑round margin was less than 2%, the narrowest on record, and the 81‑year‑old president has concentrated on mobilising voters and heightening concerns about the possible return of a Bolsonaro to the presidency.
A congressman with over two decades of service and few legislative achievements, the 45‑year‑old Bolsonaro is Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, currently under house arrest serving a 27‑year sentence for alleged coup attempts against Lula’s 2022 victory.
The senator pledges to pardon his father and, with an increasingly conservative legislature taking office next year, vows to amend the constitution and re‑democratise the nation, prompting fear among many that he could emulate his father’s authoritarian style.
“We are confronting two fundamentally different visions for the nation,” said voter Nuno Rau, 63, an architect and writer. “One threatens to erode social rights and undermine democracy, while the other championed income redistribution and free public education. Though I have reservations about Lula, I cannot choose Bolsonaro,” he added.
Aparecida Moreira, a 62‑year‑old lawyer, intends to vote for Bolsonaro primarily because of his “iron fist” security agenda, which includes constructing five “mega‑prisons” modeled on those of El Salvador’s populist leader Nayib Bukele.
“I support Bolsonaro’s proposal for chemical castration of rapists, as rape is the most severe crime,” Moreira said, adding that voting for Lula would be equivalent to supporting “dictator” Alexandre de Moraes, the justice—though not appointed by Lula—widely linked to him by Bolsonaro supporters due to his role in the former president’s conviction.
Both Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula attracted large crowds to their final campaign rallies on Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Belo Horizonte.
Bolsonaro entered the runoff campaign ahead in the polls and with backing from most of the defeated candidates, yet his support plateaued while Lula’s backing grew.
Many analysts attribute this shift to growing public apprehension about a possible Bolsonaro return, coupled with ongoing controversies, including the senator’s ongoing federal investigations for alleged corruption and money‑laundering.
Conversely, Lula revamped his digital outreach and benefited from nationwide student protests, many of which were organized without direct involvement from the president.
“Lula’s initial campaign struggled to connect with the public, but civil society movements have now propelled his growth,” said political scientist Helcimara de Souza Telles.
Regardless of the outcome, the contest is expected to be decided by a slim margin in Latin America’s largest nation, which has an electorate of 159 million.
Analysts expect that if Lula overturns his first‑round loss, Bolsonaro may emulate his father’s 2018 stance by refusing to concede, and that Donald Trump, a longtime ally of the Bolsonaro family, could also reject the result.
“Trump aims to ‘colonise’ Latin America in pursuit of its own interests,” Telles noted, adding that, with right‑wing candidates winning all seven presidential elections in Latin America since Trump’s second term, Brazil remains one of the few regional nations resisting US influence.
“Thus, a Bolsonaro victory would mean ceding Brazil to an autocratic model supported by the United States,” she added.
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