Brazil’s 2026 Presidential Vote Heads to Runoff After Bolsonaro and Lula Fall Short of Majority

Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian Senator and ally of US President Donald Trump, and Brazil’s incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will face off in a runoff on October 25 for the presidency of Latin America’s economic powerhouse, after neither secured an outright majority in Sunday’s vote.

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The Electoral Court in Brasilia ruled that neither the 80-year-old incumbent, seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, nor the 45-year-old son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, garnered the majority vote needed for an outright win.

Official results show Bolsonaro with just over 56 million votes and Lula at around 53.7 million, with 99.8% of votes counted for the presidential term set to begin January 5.

The winner will be in charge of South America’s biggest economy and a population of 214 million. A win for Bolsonaro would increase US influence in the country, while a win for Lula would likely continue to distance Brasilia from Washington and instead deepen its ties with China.

Flávio Bolsonaro addressed the press and a small group of supporters, including some wearing green and yellow Brazil jerseys and one woman wrapped in the Israeli flag, outside his Brasilia house.

“Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” Bolsonaro said. “It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era,” he added, referencing Lula’s party.

Lula, seeking to be encouraging ahead of an uphill battle to beat Bolsonaro in the upcoming runoff, said the result was “unexpected” as he had thought he could win in the first round.

“Tomorrow we start a new campaign,” said Lula. “I am very good in the knockout stage. We will see who has the best plan.”

Both Lula and Bolsonaro will have three weeks to reach moderate voters who did not support them in the first round.

Augusto Cury, a writer who finished in third place with 3.4 million votes, said he would not endorse either in the runoff. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who garnered about 5.3 million votes combined on Sunday, have previously said the same.

In the campaign ahead, Lula is expected to try to capitalise on the popularity of his social policies and his rival’s many legal woes.

While the once widely popular Lula saw his approval ratings plummet during his third term, standing up to the US gave him a boost. He still enjoys a strong base of supporters who credit his social policies for improving millions of Brazilians’ lives.

But the incumbent faces a tough battle because of an affordability crisis and a corruption scandal that ensnared the same Supreme Court justice who led the investigation into his rival Jair Bolsonaro, and subjected him to house arrest following his conviction of plotting a coup to subvert democracy after the last presidential election.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes is accused of having been in contact with disgraced banker and head of the Banco Master financial institution, Daniel Vorcaro, who had messaged him several times seeking legal advice.

Both candidates face image problems; roughly half of Brazil’s population disapproves of the Bolsonaro family, and the other half disapproves of Lula’s Workers’ Party, according to multiple polls.

Four years ago, Lula beat then incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by about 2.1 million votes.

While Sunday was a successful night for Bolsonaro, nothing is won yet. Both will need to tap into the other candidates’ base to launch a successful presidential bid, which may force them to concede on certain policy goals to receive an endorsement.

The three other main candidates – Cury, Santos and Caiado – hold roughly 8.73 million or 7.5% of eligible votes between them.

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