Brazil’s Trade Shift to China Amid US Tariff Pressures and Declining US Market Share

Brazilian exports to the US declined to their lowest level since 1997 in the first half of 2026, as China solidified its position as the leading trading partner, according to a report by the American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil. The findings coincided with public hearings in Washington regarding proposed new tariffs on Brazilian goods.

American buyers accounted for just 9.4% of Brazil’s exports in the January-June period, down from 12.1% the previous year, marking a record low in the chamber’s data. China’s share rose to 31.5% from 28.9%, now representing nearly a third of Brazil’s total exports. Exports to the US decreased by 13% to $17.4 billion, while shipments to China surged by 21.9% during the same period.

Brazilian exports to the US fell 13 per cent in the half, to US$17.4 billion, while shipments to China jumped 21.9 per cent, the chamber’s report showed.

The reduction in US trade led to a 12.8% decrease in total bilateral trade, reaching $36.4 billion. Goods subject to US surtaxes saw a steeper decline of 20.5% in the 12 months ending June.

For 14 Brazilian states, China has become the top trading partner, according to ApexBrasil, which marks a reversal from two decades ago when 17 states had the US as their primary market, compared to just six today.

In response to US tariffs, Brazilian exporters are actively seeking new markets, with 72% of companies supported by the agency establishing at least one new market since the tariffs were imposed.

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