Ten years on, the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union is now regarded as more than just a referendum outcome. Analysts contend it revealed a broader crisis of political imagination, wherein Brexit advocates misinterpreted both Britain and the global landscape, and the envisioned future never materialized.
The referendum conducted on 23 June 2016 stands as a pivotal moment in recent British history. Proponents pledged sovereignty, regulatory reduction, fresh trade agreements, and a more dynamic “Global Britain.”
Critics maintain that Brexit has rendered Britain economically weaker and less capable of confronting global shocks a decade after voters opted to leave the EU.
Nevertheless, the referendum marked a turning point, as noted by Colin Hay, professor of political science at Sciences Po in Paris, in an interview with RFI.
‘Its relationship with the European Union and its global ties has been fundamentally altered from that point forward,’ Hay explained. ‘And ten years later, this transformation is evident.’
Protesters hold anti-Brexit placards featuring (L-R) David Cameron, Michael Gove, Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage during a march calling for the UK to rejoin the EU from Hyde Park to Palace of Westminster in central London on 23 September 2023. AFP – JUSTIN TALLIS 
A changed Britain
Brexit cannot be assessed as a standard policy choice, Hay argues, because voters were asked to pick a direction without knowing the eventual form of leaving the EU.
Voters often did not foresee the specific shape of Brexit they were endorsing; today, many experience a degree of buyer’s remorse,” Hay observes.
Recently, Michael Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister of the Conservative Party, denounced Brexit as a “self‑imposed disaster” and a “con”, urging its promoters to “hang their heads in shame.”
Former Leader of the Brexit Party, Nigel Farage speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in National Harbor, Maryland, on 23 February 2024. AFP – MANDEL NGAN 
Economic costs
The economic consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU are now clearer than they were at the time of the referendum, Hay told RFI, though he cautions that Brexit cannot be isolated from other shocks the country has faced over the past decade.
Hay continues, noting that Britain is now less equipped to manage those shocks and challenges than it would have been without Brexit.
The notion of a newly liberated “Global Britain” was always weak, given that the UK already enjoyed numerous favourable trade arrangements through its EU membership.
The promise of transforming Britain into a “Singapore‑on‑Thames” also fell short. The UK already possessed a relatively light‑touch regulatory regime among European economies and had long been heavily deregulated in financial services.
Hay noted that any shift toward light regulation has not produced measurable benefits for the British economy.
A slogan reading “lets fund our NHS instead. Vote Leave” is pictured on the side of the “Vote Leave” battle-bus, the official ‘Leave’ campaign organisation for the forthcoming EU referendum, in Preston, north-west England, on 27 May 2016. AFP – PAUL ELLIS 
Campaign arguments
However, the Leave campaign proved highly effective in challenging warnings from economists, diplomats, businesses, and officials who invoked “Project Fear.”
This approach diminished the role of empirical evidence in the debate, and the Leave camp also leveraged the promise that Brexit would free funds for the National Health Service.
Hay contends that the campaign’s greatest strength lay in its ability to marginalise and dismiss evidence and expertise presented by the Remain side.
Led in part by Nigel Farage and his populist messaging, the campaign urged voters to reject not only the EU but also the expert technocratic governance model associated with it.
Simultaneously, Leave advocates promoted a straightforward financial promise.
They emblazoned large figures on prominent red buses, suggesting that a Brexit vote would free public finances and enable substantial NHS investment, among other benefits.
The promised outcomes, however, have not materialised, Hay adds.
Brexit supporters often argue that the vote was not primarily about economics but about sovereignty and control. Nigel Farage and others have also claimed that Brexit failed because it was never properly implemented.
Hay explains that this argument was easy to make and had been repeated since Theresa May’s tenure as prime minister, when she faced pressure to deliver a harder and more economically costly form of Brexit.
Public opinion has shifted markedly over the past decade.
Hay estimates that between 20 and 30 percent of those who voted for Brexit would now choose to remain if given the chance again.
Newly elected Labour Party MP for Makerfield, Andy Burnham speaks to supporters and members of the media, the morning after his by-election victory, at Ashton Town FC, in Ashton in Makerfield, north-west England on 19 June 2026. Burnham emphatically won a crunch by-election on Friday, securing a parliamentary seat and clearing the way for a widely expected leadership challenge against beleaguered Prime Minister Keir Starmer. AFP – OLI SCARFF 
Uncertain future
Meanwhile, Keir Starmer’s government has been working to rebuild bridges with the EU while steering clear of the divisions that characterised the Brexit era.
The debate within Labour is growing more complex, with questions over how far any future leader could go in restoring Britain’s relationship with the EU.
For Hay, Britain’s uncertainty ten years after Brexit is closely linked to its economic weakness.
‘It is much easier to be confident about Britain if it has a stronger economy,’ he says.
The Labour administration assumed it would have greater fiscal space to pursue positive initiatives whenever it examined the books. In reality, it found the coffers empty, leaving little room for maneuver.
Ten years after the vote, Brexit transcends issues of treaties, borders, and trade; it also raises questions about what Britain was promised, what it received, and the extent of control the country actually regained.