The British bureaucrats who pioneered the decolonization process in the 1960s found themselves navigating a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. Institutions that had once underpinned empire were repurposed, often instilling a newfound sense of purpose in bureaucrats, according to historian Sarah Stockwell. The country’s gradual unraveling unfolded over decades, mirrored by the sterling’s decline, shuttered airfields, and the return of overseas personnel. Newly independent states emerged from imperial rule, asserting sovereignty on the global stage.
The 1956 Suez Crisis is widely regarded as the decisive blow to British power. When Egypt seized the Canal, Britain, France, and Israel launched a military intervention. Unable to sustain the operation, the United States pressured the trio to withdraw, and London soon reduced its forces in the Middle East.
A similar tipping point may lie in the Iran conflict, signalling prolonged decline. Former deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman and others describe the war as a form of “superpower suicide”—a self‑destructive act that isolates the United States, drains its arsenal, and emboldens adversaries.
In this binary framework, U.S. decline seems inevitable. The reality, however, is nuanced. In Iran, the U.S. retains significant capability but lacks the willingness to deploy it. “We are no longer perceived as willing to bear the costs of advancing our interests,” says Richard Nephew, former deputy special envoy for Iran during the Biden administration. Instead, the current administration appears intent on ending the conflict swiftly, even at the expense of its stated goals. While the war may hasten a move toward imperial atrophy, substantial strength remains.
The United States will maintain a presence in the Gulf for the foreseeable future, but regional actors may pursue alternative security strategies. “If you’re in the Gulf right now, you’re not going to run to China or Russia, because they won’t offer better security,” Nephew says, “but you will start to hedge your bets.” Iranian forces targeted civilian infrastructure—including airports, apartment buildings, hotels, and desalination plants—near bases in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait. U.S. defenses repelled most of these attacks, limiting Iranian incursions into these smaller nations, a pattern that is likely to persist beyond the current conflict. Nonetheless, the damage inflicted has prompted a cost‑benefit debate in regional capitals.