Patrick Johnston: Canada’s path to the knockout round is clear, but who they could play is still wide open.
Published Jun 20, 2026 • Last updated 3 hours ago • 4 minute read
Canada’s Scenario
Canada has four points from its first two World Cup matches, including a 6‑0 demolition of Qatar on Thursday, and a draw with Switzerland earlier in the tournament. A draw in its final group fixture against Switzerland next Wednesday at B.C. Place will secure Canada’s place atop Group B and a home knockout clash on July 2.
If Canada finishes first, they will host the knockout round at B.C. Place. A Swiss win would give the Swiss the group crown, pushing Canada to second place and forcing a trip to Los Angeles to face the Group A runner‑up, which is almost certainly South Korea unless a major upset reshapes that group.
Who Will the Opponent Be?
The winner of Group B will face the best third‑placed side from groups E, F, G, I or J. Only eight of the twelve third‑place finishers advance, so the pool is limited. Projection models from The Athletic and Silver Bulletin give Egypt, Algeria and Austria each a greater than 10 % chance of being the July 2 opponent.
Group G and Group J are the most likely sources of the third‑place qualifier. In Group G the race is tight: Belgium, Egypt, New Zealand and Iran each sit on three points after the opening round, leaving the ultimate qualifier in doubt until the final match‑days.
How Group G Could Shake Out
Going into Sunday’s fixtures, Group G is a four‑way tie. Belgium and Egypt played a 1‑1 draw, while New Zealand and Iran settled for a 2‑2 result. Belgium faces Iran midday in Los Angeles and is a strong favourite. Egypt is favoured against New Zealand, but the Kiwis have shown they can spring upsets.
Austria? Algeria?
Austria’s 2‑1 win over Jordan last weekend all but guarantees the Austrians will finish third in Group J, positioning them as a potential opponent. Algeria meets Jordan on Monday and is expected to secure the group’s second spot, leaving Austria to face Argentina (manned by Lionel Messi) on the same day. The group’s final match‑day will decide which of the two advances as third‑place.
Wait, Ecuador?
Ecuador sits third in Group E with a small chance of finishing above the top two. After losing to Ivory Coast, they must beat Curaçao on Saturday and then lose to Germany the following weekend. Ivory Coast, meanwhile, still faces Curaçao and is essentially locked in second place, making Ecuador a long‑shot contender.
OK, So Who Will It Be?
The ultimate answer rests on the final third‑place rankings, which are decided by points, goal difference, goals scored and, if necessary, a points system based on disciplinary cards. At the time of writing, Canada leads Group B, but Belgium – currently third in Group G – is projected to be the July 2 opponent. All of that could shift in the final round of group matches, and if Canada wins its knockout game it will head back to Vancouver for the round of 16.
pjohnston@postmedia.com