Chenab River Water Levels Expected to Rise Sharply Amid Stifling Monsoon Rains

LAHORE: Sustained monsoon downpours across contested Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab have triggered heightened flooding risks on the Chenab River, with meteorologists warning of elevated discharge rates entering critical thresholds over the coming days.

A senior Punjab Irrigation Department official informed Dawn on Monday that current medium flood levels on the Chenab could escalate to high-flow conditions within 48 hours as heavy precipitation intensifies across source regions. “The river’s flow trajectory is precarious – we’re anticipating a rapid deterioration in hydrological parameters as Kashmir’s catchment zones receive relentless rains,” the official stated.

Aligning with these concerns, the Pakistan Meteorological Department’s Flood Forecasting Division released its daily bulletin highlighting systemic risks across the Indus river system. The FFD specifically flagged the Chenab Basin – including tributaries like Dora, Dotta, and Halsi – as prioritized zones requiring emergency preparedness measures. Elevated water velocities are projected to impact 14 districts spanning Punjab’s southern and central regions by July 24.

While Indus waters remain subdued at major gauging stations like Kotri (210,000 cusecs outflow) and Kalabagh, tributaries tell a different story. The Jhelum’s Mangla Dam registered overnight inflows of 57,400 cusecs, maintaining medium flood status despite extensive upstream spillage. However, Chenab’s Marala station – currently at 34,500 cusecs – is forecast to cross 45,000 cusecs threshold by dawn Tuesday under worst-case scenarios.

Urban infrastructure operators are on high alert as projections indicate concentrated flash flooding risks in low-lying areas of Rawalpindi Division and Sargodha corridor. Agricultural dependencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s hill torrents face compounded threats from both sudden peak flows and surface runoff envelopeing terracultural zones.

The Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority disclosed real-time data showing Yahad Hydraulic Control Structure inflows (232,500 cusecs) continuing to outpace regulatory releases (210,000 cusecs) through Friday, maintaining sufficient headroom to manage Chenab’s anticipated contributions without disrupting Wheat-boost operations slated for Karakoram Balochistan valleys.

Source link