China’s Manufacturing Sector Shows Resilience in May Private Survey Despite Mixed Official Indicators

Workers make US flags ahead of the 2026 World Cup football tournament, at a factory in Qingdao, in China’s Shandong province on May 28, 2026.

– | Afp | Getty Images

BEIJING — Private sector data released Monday indicates that China’s manufacturing activity grew more rapidly than anticipated in May, although the pace of expansion moderated compared to April and diverged from softer official government figures.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, produced by S&P Global, reached 51.8, slightly exceeding the 51.6 forecast by a Reuters poll. This figure represents a decline from April’s 52.2, suggesting a cooling trend in industrial growth, though any reading above 50 indicates continued expansion.

“While the rate of growth eased, it remained among the highest observed over the past five years,” noted Yao Yu, founder of the credit research firm RatingDog.

The report highlighted a marginal contraction in employment and a slight dip in new export orders during May. Additionally, seasonally adjusted input prices declined for the first time in six months; however, overall costs remained high, driven by energy prices, raw material costs, and ongoing supply chain volatility.

Manufacturers surveyed expressed optimism regarding the next 12 months, citing potential growth driven by technological advancements, new product introductions, and increased production capacity.

The discrepancy between the two indices stems from their different scopes: the RatingDog survey focuses on a smaller group of export-oriented firms, whereas the official PMI captures a broader cross-section of the domestic industrial landscape.

According to data released Sunday, China’s official manufacturing PMI dropped to 50 in May from 50.3 in April, marking its lowest point since February. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that these official figures suggest a “subdued manufacturing sector” paired with growing services activity and a persistent downturn in construction.

These conflicting indicators reflect a broader trend of uneven momentum within the Chinese economy. While April retail sales hit a 40-month low, domestic tourism and consumer spending saw a boost during the extended May 1 holiday. Hotel group H World reported that the highest occupancy rates were found in smaller cities, where room rates are generally more affordable than in major metropolitan hubs.

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