Coalition’s Anti-ISIL Mission Winds Down as U.S. Exits Northern Iraq, Raising Questions Over Regional Stability

Operation Inherent Resolve is set to conclude on September 30 as the remaining U.S. forces in northern Iraq finalize their withdrawal. Established in October 2014, the Combined Joint Task Force united international partners to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) after the group seized vast territory across Iraq and Syria. The mission’s closure underscores the coalition’s success in degrading ISIL’s territorial holdings, yet it simultaneously introduces significant uncertainty regarding the future security architecture and political stability of both nations — including the persistent threat of an ISIL resurgence. The American departure from northern Iraq, following the earlier pullout from Syria in April, also amplifies security risks for Kurdish populations in the region. To assess the implications for Iraq, Syria, and the ongoing counterterrorism effort, we consulted five regional experts.

Victoria J. Taylor, Director of the Iraq Initiative and Syria Project at the Atlantic Council, argues that the end of Operation Inherent Resolve marks both a practical and symbolic close to an era defined by a U.S.-Iraqi relationship anchored in military presence. For many Iraqis, particularly the Shia political elite, this moment represents a restoration of sovereignty and an opportunity to recalibrate bilateral ties toward political and economic cooperation. However, the shadow of U.S.-Iran tensions ensures that security concerns will continue to dominate the partnership. Iraq’s sovereignty remains fragile; Iran-backed militias continue to entangle Baghdad in regional conflicts, jeopardizing its relations with Washington and neighboring states. The critical question is whether the United States is prepared to disengage entirely if the Iraqi government fails to disarm these militias and distance itself from Tehran. Consequently, the termination of Operation Inherent Resolve may signal either the end of U.S. engagement in Iraq or the beginning of a fundamentally new chapter.

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