December ICE New York cocoa (CCZ26) rose 24 points, or 0.45%, while December ICE London cocoa #7 (CAZ26) gained 22 points, or 0.58%.
Cocoa prices rebounded from eight-week lows as short covering supported the market amid forecasts for dry weather in Ivory Coast. The outlook raised concerns that crop stress could reduce yields and weaken production during the 2026/27 season.
The market has faced pressure for three weeks as evidence of stronger Ivory Coast output has emerged. On September 2, Ivory Coast’s coffee and cocoa regulator, Le Conseil du Café-Cacao, reported that the country harvested 2.06 million metric tons of cocoa between June 2025 and June 2026, up 30% from 1.58 million tons a year earlier.
Bloomberg reported last Monday that Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, shipped 2.14 million metric tons to ports during the current international marketing year, which runs from October 1, 2025, through September 13, 2026. That was 18% higher than during the same period a year earlier.
However, Ivory Coast moved its marketing year forward to begin September 1 rather than October 1. According to Reuters, deliveries during September 1-13 totaled 26,000 metric tons, down 45.8% from the comparable October 1-12 period of the previous season.
Rising inventories have also weighed on prices. ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a two-year high of 3,436,742 bags on September 4 and stood slightly lower at 3,434,532 bags last Friday.
Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest cocoa processor, said on September 2 that the global cocoa market is well supplied and better positioned to manage risks than it was during the 2023/24 El Niño event, which helped drive prices to record highs.
Cocoa had recently strengthened, with New York futures reaching an 11.75-month high on August 31 and London futures doing the same on September 1. Concerns about the quality of West African crops continue to support prices, as cloudy conditions and limited sunshine in Ivory Coast and Ghana have encouraged the spread of black pod disease and reduced bean quality.
Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, also remains a key source of supply concerns. On August 20, the Ghana Cocoa Board said field surveys of pod counts indicated that the 2026/27 crop could reach 650,000 metric tons, down 13% from the estimated 750,000 tons produced in 2025/26.
Early assessments of Ivory Coast’s 2026/27 crop are also supportive. Surveys have found below-average cherelle formation on cocoa trees, suggesting a weaker main harvest that began this month. Poor pod development has led to an average seasonal estimate of 1.8 million metric tons, down 18% from about 2.2 million tons in 2025/26.
StoneX reduced its forecast for the 2026/27 global cocoa surplus to 25,000 metric tons on July 29 from 149,000 tons in April, citing risks to West African production from a possible El Niño. Transgraph Consulting also forecast on July 23 that the global surplus would narrow to 80,000 tons in 2026-27 from 415,000 tons in 2025-26, as production is expected to decline to 4.87 million tons from 5.11 million tons.
Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected on July 30 that 2026/27 production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons from an estimated 750,000 tons in 2025/26. The forecast reflected concerns over swollen shoot disease, aging farms and potentially adverse El Niño-related weather. Current-season output, however, remains strong: Ghana reported on August 26 that 750,000 tons had been harvested for the 2025/26 season, up 25.6% from 597,000 tons in 2024/25.
Longer-term support is also coming from weather risks. The US Climate Prediction Center said on July 8 that the El Niño pattern developing across the equatorial Pacific could become one of the strongest in more than 75 years. El Niño typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees and potentially lowering yields.
Cocoa demand was mixed during the second quarter. The European Cocoa Association reported on July 16 that European grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, exceeding expectations for a 1.5% annual decline and marking the weakest second-quarter level in six years. In North America, however, grindings unexpectedly rose 7.7% year over year to 109,659 tons, according to the National Confectioners Association, easing concerns about demand. Asian grindings also improved, with the Cocoa Association of Asia reporting a 25% annual increase to 224,646 tons, well above expectations for 9% growth.
