September ICE NY Cocoa (CCU26) closed up by 274 points (5.51%) on Thursday, while July ICE London Cocoa #7 (CAN26) finished up 173 points (4.63%).
The rally, which has persisted for two weeks, pushed prices to 5.5‑month highs. Market participants cite uncertainty around the forthcoming West African cocoa crop as a key driver. Heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana have flooded roads and impeded farmer and port access, threatening supply continuity.
June rainfall totals through Monday have already approached the average monthly levels for both countries. Excess moisture also heightens the risk of brown rot, which can diminish yields and compromise the harvest.
Medium‑term support stems from weather‑related concerns. On June 10, Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed the development of an El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific. Typically, El Niño brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, depleting soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and curbing yields. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, one of the strongest on record.
Early government surveys of the 2026/27 West African cocoa crop also signal a weak outlook, noting below‑average cherelle formation on cocoa trees and indicating challenges for the main harvest scheduled to start in October.
Cocoa prices faced selling pressure amid indications of surplus supply. On June 11, the Ivory Coast announced that it had shipped an additional 260,000 metric tonnes to ports this season, bringing cumulative reports to 1.95 MMT between October 1, 2025 and June 7, 2026—an 18.9% increase from the same period a year earlier. The Ivory Coast also confirmed that 2025/26 production will decline by 10.8% year‑on‑year to 1.65 MMT from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25.
Rising inventories further weigh on prices. ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 1.75‑year high, reaching 2,948,286 bags as of Thursday.
Stagnant global demand is another bearish factor. The National Confectioners Association reported that North American Q1 cocoa grindings fell 3.8% year‑on‑year to 106,087 MT. The European Cocoa Association recorded a 7.8% year‑on‑year drop in Q1 European cocoa grindings to 325,895 MT, exceeding the anticipated 6% decline and marking the lowest for a first quarter in 17 years. Conversely, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported a 5.2% year‑on‑year increase in Q1 Asian cocoa grindings to 223,503 MT, surpassing expectations of a 6.7% decline.
A contraction in Nigerian cocoa exports also supports price momentum. Bloomberg reported that April exports fell 20% year‑on‑year to 14,921 MT. The Nigerian Cocoa Association projects that 2025/26 production will drop 11% year‑on‑year to 305,000 MT from 344,000 MT for 2024/25.
Both Ghana and the Ivory Coast have recently cut the official farmgate price they pay to cocoa farmers—Ghana slashed the price by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season, while the Ivory Coast cut it by 57% for the mid‑crop harvest that began in March. Together, the two countries supply more than half of the world’s cocoa.
The anticipation of a tighter global supply supports price resilience. On April 29, StoneX lowered its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from January’s 267,000 MT, citing risks to the West African crop from a potential El Niño event. StoneX similarly revised its 2025/26 surplus forecast to 247,000 MT from 287,000 MT in January.
