Cocoa Prices Rally Amid West African Rainstorm Concerns

September ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) closed up +658 (+13.07%) and September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed up +460 (+12.23%) on Monday.

Cocoa prices surged sharply, reaching a 5.75‑month high in New York and a 6‑month high in London, driven by worries that heavy rains in the Ivory Coast and Ghana could tighten supply next season.

Heavy rainfall has flooded roads, blocked farmer access to farms and ports, and threatened the global supply chain. Excess moisture also heightens the risk of brown rot and black pod disease, potentially reducing yields and harming the harvest.

Medium‑term market support comes from weather forecasts. On June 10 the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific, which typically brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, stressing cocoa trees and lowering yields. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimates a 67 % chance of a “Super El Niño” this year, one of the strongest on record.

Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop show below‑average cherelle formation and weak pod development, suggesting a weaker harvest. Current estimates point to 1.8 MMT for the upcoming season—18 % lower than the 2.2 MMT recorded in 2025/26. Updated surveys in July will refine the projected crop size.

Surging ICE cocoa inventories, which reached a nearly two‑year high of 3,035,471 bags last Thursday, are also weighing on prices.

Despite growing inventories, supply concerns remain. On June 11 the Ivory Coast increased its estimate of cocoa shipped to ports by over 260,000 MT this season. Cumulative data show that farmers have already dispatched 2.04 MMT to ports in the current marketing year, a 20 % rise from the same period a year earlier. Though the Ivory Coast forecasts a 10.8 % production decline for 2025/26, the overall market remains cautious.

Rising Nigerian cocoa exports—up 28 % year‑over‑year to 18,034 MT in May—will also impact the market. Conversely, Nigerian cocoa production is projected to shrink by 11 % to 305,000 MT for 2025/26, which would support prices.

Demand indicators are mixed. The National Confectioners Association reported a 3.8 % year‑over‑year drop in North American Q1 cocoa grindings to 106,087 MT. European grindings fell 7.8 % to 325,895 MT, the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years, while Asian grindings rose 5.2 % to 223,503 MT.

Policy changes in Ghana and the Ivory Coast—both of which supply more than half the world’s cocoa—have reduced farmers’ payments by roughly 30 % and 57 % respectively, potentially tightening the supply chain further.

Global surplus forecasts have been revised downward. On April 29, StoneX cut its 2026/27 global surplus estimate to 149,000 MT from 267,000 MT, citing risks posed by the anticipated El Niño. The 2025/26 surplus estimate was similarly trimmed to 247,000 MT from 287,000 MT.

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