Cocoa Prices Rise Amid Severe West African Weather Challenges

On September, ICE NY cocoa (CCU26) rose 39 cents (+0.68%), while ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) increased 27 cents (+0.64%).

Cocoa prices continued their steep three‑week rally, hitting six‑month highs. The recent surge follows heavy rains in Ivory Coast and Ghana that have flooded roads, restricting farmer access to fields and ports and jeopardizing global supplies. Excessive moisture also raises the risk of brown rot and black pod diseases, which can lower yields and threaten the harvest.

Medium‑term support for cocoa prices stems from anticipated weather developments. On June 10, Japan’s Meteorological Agency confirmed the formation of an El Niño pattern across the equatorial Pacific. Typically, El Niño brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, diminishing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and reducing yields. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects a 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year, potentially one of the strongest on record.

Early surveys of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate below‑average cherelle formation, suggesting a weak outlook for the main September harvest. Initial assessments reveal poor pod development and an estimated production of 1.8 million metric tons for the September‑starting season, representing an 18% decline from the roughly 2.2 MMT recorded in 2025/26. Market participants await forthcoming July surveys to finalize crop size projections.

Increasing cocoa inventories are exerting downward pressure on prices. ICE cocoa stocks climbed to a near two‑year peak of 3,063,831 bags on Monday.

Last month, cocoa prices faced downward pressure as signs of ample supply emerged. On June 11, Ivory Coast revised its estimate of cocoa arrivals at ports upward by more than 260,000 metric tons for the season. Cumulative data indicate that farmers shipped 2.04 MMT of cocoa to ports between October 1, 2025, and June 28, 2026, a 20% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. Ivory Coast also projected that 2025/26 production would decline 10.8% year‑over‑year to 1.65 MMT, down from 1.85 MMT in 2024/25.

Broader global supply growth is negative for cocoa prices. Bloomberg reported on June 25 that Nigerian cocoa exports in May increased 28% year‑over‑year to 18,034 MT.

Weak global demand is bearish for cocoa prices. The National Confectioners Association reported on April 23 that North American Q1 cocoa grindings slipped 3.8% year‑over‑year to 106,087 MT. The European Cocoa Association likewise indicated a 7.8% year‑over‑year decline in Q1 European grindings, reaching 325,895 MT—a steeper drop than the anticipated 6% and the lowest Q1 figure in 17 years. In contrast, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported an unexpected 5.2% year‑over‑year rise in Q1 Asian grindings, reaching 223,503 MT, outperforming expectations of a 6.7% decline.

Reduced cocoa output from Nigeria, the world’s fifth‑largest producer, supports prices. The Nigerian Cocoa Association projects a 11% year‑over‑year decline in 2025/26 production, forecasting 305,000 MT versus 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year.

In February, Ghana reduced its official farmgate price for cocoa by nearly 30% for the 2025/26 season. In March, Ivory Coast announced a 57% cut to farmer payments, effective for the mid‑crop harvest that commenced in March. Together, Ivory Coast and Ghana account for more than half of global cocoa production.

A tightening global cocoa surplus is expected to bolster prices. On April 29, StoneX revised its 2026/27 global surplus estimate downward to 149,000 MT from the earlier 267,000 MT forecast, citing threats to West African crops from an anticipated El Niño. StoneX also trimmed its 2025/26 surplus projection to 247,000 MT from 287,000 MT.

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