December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ26) closed up +2 (+0.03%) on Wednesday, while September ICE London cocoa #7 (CAU26) closed down -4 (-0.10%). Cocoa prices settled little changed on Wednesday, continuing to face pressure from signs of abundant global cocoa supplies.
Recent trade data highlighted significant export growth from major West African producers. In July, Nigeria’s cocoa bean exports rose 18% year-over-year to 16,052 metric tons, maintaining strong output for the world’s fifth-largest producer. Similarly, cumulative data from the Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, showed that farmers shipped 2.11 million metric tons (MMT) of cocoa to ports during the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through August 2, 2026), representing a 20% increase from the same period a year ago.
Robust supplies have led to a buildup in inventories, which continues to act as a drag on prices. ICE cocoa inventories rose to a two-year high of 3,384,965 bags on August 5. Despite this abundance, prices found some support last Thursday, rallying to three-week highs on concerns over shrinking crops in West Africa.
Ghana’s Cocoa Board estimated the 2026/27 cocoa crop at 650,000 metric tons, down 13% from the 750,000 metric tons recorded last year, following a field survey of pod counts. Furthermore, early assessments of the 2026/27 Ivory Coast cocoa crop indicate below-average cherelle formation and poor pod development, with an average harvest estimate of 1.8 million metric tons for the season starting in September—down 18% from approximately 2.2 million metric tons in 2025/26.
Analysts have adjusted their supply forecasts accordingly. StoneX recently cut its 2026/27 global cocoa surplus estimate to 25,000 metric tons from a previous forecast of 149,000 metric tons in April, citing risks to the West African crop from an expected El Niño. Similarly, Transgraph Consulting forecast the global cocoa surplus in 2026-2027 to shrink to 80,000 metric tons from 415,000 metric tons in 2025-2026, driven by an expected decline in global production to 4.87 million metric tons from 5.11 million metric tons.
Weather patterns remain a critical medium-term factor. The US Climate Prediction Center indicated that the El Niño weather pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific is likely to be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. Typically, El Niño brings warmer, drier conditions to West Africa, reducing soil moisture, stressing cocoa trees, and lowering yields.
Ghana’s cocoa regulator, COCOBOD, projected that the country’s 2026/27 cocoa production could fall to between 450,000 and 550,000 metric tons, down from the 750,000 metric tons projected for 2025/26. This decline is attributed to the combined impacts of swollen shoot disease, aging cocoa farms, and the likelihood of adverse weather from El Niño. However, production remains robust for the current 2025/26 marketing year, with 750,000 metric tons harvested, up 25.6% from 597,000 metric tons in the previous season.
Looking at demand, results were mixed in the second quarter. The European Cocoa Association reported that Q2 European cocoa grindings fell 4.6% to 316,366 metric tons, marking the lowest level for Q2 in six years and undershooting the expected 1.5% year-over-year decline. In contrast, the National Confectioners Association reported that Q2 North American cocoa grindings unexpectedly rose by 7.7% year-over-year to 109,659 metric tons, well above expectations of a 1% decline. Additionally, Asian cocoa demand showed improvement, with the Cocoa Association of Asia reporting a 25% year-over-year increase in Q2 grindings to 224,646 metric tons, significantly exceeding the expected 9% rise.
