Coffee Futures Edge Higher on Tight Supply and Global Disruptions

December arabica coffee (KCZ26) settled $19.00 higher, a 5.89% rise, while September ICE robusta (RMU26) gained $192, up 5.34%.

Coffee prices jumped sharply on Monday, with arabica hitting a seven‑and‑a‑half‑month peak and robusta reaching a one‑and‑a‑half‑week high. The sluggish progress of Brazil’s harvest is tightening supply and supporting prices. Data from Brazil’s Cooxupe cooperative on Aug. 14 showed 81.1% of the crop harvested, up 7 percentage points from the prior week but still below the 86.1% level recorded a year earlier. Meanwhile, Safras & Mercado reported on Aug. 14 that the 2026/27 Brazilian harvest was 90% complete as of Aug. 12, lagging both last year’s 97% and the five‑year average of 94%. Arabica harvest in Brazil stood at 86% of the total, down from 95% a year ago.

ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.75‑year low of 226,242 bags on Monday, a bullish signal for arabica prices, while ICE robusta inventories rose to an 8.75‑month high of 4,831 lots, weighing on robusta.

Prices also received a boost from the severe 7.4‑magnitude earthquake that struck Colombia earlier this month, the world’s second‑largest arabica producer. The quake impacted the coffee‑growing provinces of Caldas and Risaralda, which together account for roughly a quarter of Colombia’s output.

Colombia has begun to resume coffee exports through the Pacific port of Buenaventura, which handles the majority of the country’s shipments, according to a Bloomberg report dated Aug. 13 that quoted Asoexport, Colombia’s coffee growers’ association. However, port operations remain intermittent and limited. The report noted that the earthquake caused no major damage to processing or milling facilities, exporters said.

Concerns about an El Niño weather pattern threatening Brazil’s coffee crop next year are keeping prices elevated. A coffee trader said the El Niño could delay September‑October rains in Brazil, a critical period for tree flowering, potentially harming the 2026/27 harvest. On July 8, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center warned that the El Niño emerging in the equatorial Pacific could be one of the strongest in over 75 years, setting the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature swings that could disrupt coffee production across Asia and South America.

Below‑average rainfall in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region, the country’s main arabica‑growing area, should accelerate the pace of the harvest, which would be bearish for prices. Somar Meteorologia reported last Monday that only 0.6 mm of rain (11% of the historical average) fell during the week ending Aug. 16.

Strong export growth from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, is pressuring robusta prices. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported on Aug. 2 that 2026 coffee exports (Jan‑Jul) rose 21.1% year‑over‑year to 1.31 million metric tons. In 2025, exports jumped 17.5% to 1.58 million metric tons. Production for the 2025/26 season is projected to increase 6% year‑over‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags).

The latest USDA biannual outlook was bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the agency forecast global coffee output for the 2026‑27 season to rise 6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, driven largely by improved conditions in Brazil. Arabica production is expected to climb 12% year‑over‑year, while robusta output is seen falling 0.7% year‑over‑year. World ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. In early June, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projected a record 2026/27 Brazilian crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year‑over‑year.

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