December arabica coffee (KCZ26) slipped 4.10 points, or 1.46%, on Monday, while November ICE robusta coffee (RMX26) fell 59 points, or 1.74%.
Coffee prices retreated on Monday, reaching three‑month lows. Over the past three weeks, prices have been pressured by expectations of ample global supplies. On September 10, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) projected a record global coffee harvest and a surplus. It noted that 2025/26 global coffee production rose 4.4% year‑on‑year to a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption slipped 0.9% year‑on‑year to 180.6 million bags, leaving a 3‑million‑bag surplus—the first in five years.
Beneficial growing conditions in Brazil and Vietnam are also pressuring coffee prices. Above‑average rainfall in Brazil during the critical flowering period could boost the 2026/27 arabica harvest, a bearish factor. Somar Meteorologia reported that on Monday, 33.4 mm of rain—242% of the historical average—fell in the week ending September 20 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s primary arabica‑growing region. In Vietnam, forecaster Vaisala said abundant rains have improved soil moisture and should support cherry development in the Central Highlands, the nation’s largest coffee‑producing area.
Brazil’s coffee is entering export markets as the harvest concludes, adding to global supplies and weighing on prices. Cecafe reported that Brazil’s total coffee exports in August rose 31% year‑on‑year to 4.155 million bags, a record for the month. Arabica shipments increased 26% to 2.87 million bags, while robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. Additionally, Brazil’s Trade Ministry said on September 8 that August coffee exports climbed 44.6% year‑on‑year to 206,618 metric tons, the highest level in eight months.
Signs of expanding coffee supplies from Vietnam, the world’s top robusta producer, are pressuring robusta prices. Vietnam’s General Statistics Office said on September 2 that coffee exports for January‑August 2026 rose 13.7% year‑on‑year to 1.33 million metric tons. Meanwhile, 2025 coffee exports surged 17.5% year‑on‑year to 1.58 million metric tons. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year‑on‑year to a four‑year high of 1.76 million metric tons (about 29.4 million bags).
Falling inventories are supportive for arabica prices, with ICE arabica stocks dropping to a 27‑year low of 217,646 bags last Tuesday before rebounding to a 1.5‑month high of 258,415 bags last Friday. Conversely, rising inventories are bearish for robusta, as ICE robusta stocks climbed to a 9.5‑month high of 5,043 lots last Monday.
Concerns that an El Niño event could impair Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Trader Commercial warned that El Niño may delay rains in Brazil during September and October, when flowering normally occurs, potentially harming the 2026/27 harvest. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center stated on July 8 that the El Niño pattern emerging across the equatorial Pacific last month could rank among the strongest in over 75 years, setting the stage for possible floods, droughts, and temperature swings later this year that might hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
The latest USDA biannual outlook is bearish for coffee prices. On July 22, the USDA forecast that global coffee output for the 2026‑27 season will rise 6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to better growing conditions in Brazil. It expects arabica production to increase 12% year‑on‑year, while robusta output may decline 0.7% year‑on‑year. World ending stocks are projected to grow by 1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. Earlier, on June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service predicted a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up 14% year‑on‑year.
