September arabica coffee (KCU26) rose 0.85% (+0.25%) while ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) declined -0.95% (-36 points), reflecting mixed market sentiment driven by supply constraints and inventory dynamics.
Arabica coffee prices gained traction Tuesday as markets reacted to export disruptions following a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Colombia, a major arabica-producing region. Earthquake impacts targeted Caldas and Risaralda, key provinces contributing roughly 25% of Colombia’s output, while Maersk confirmed temporary suspension of operations at Buenaventura’s export terminal and road restrictions complicating inland cargo transport.
ICE arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 241,838 bags, bolstering prices, whereas robusta stockpiles climbed to 4,352 lots—a 4.75-month high—adding bearish pressure.
Brazil’s coffee harvest continues at a gradual pace, with Cooxupe co-op reporting 74.6% completion by August 7, slightly behind last year’s pace. However, below-average rainfall (5.8 mm, 92% of historical norms) in Minas Gerais may accelerate harvest progress, potentially pressuring prices downward.
El Niño concerns loom large, with traders warning of delayed rains during Brazil’s critical September-October flowering period, which could impact the 2026/27 crop. The US Climate Prediction Center previously highlighted the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events in over 75 years, raising risks of weather volatility in coffee-producing regions.
Vietnam’s record coffee exports—up 21.1% y/y to 1.31 million metric tons in Jan-Jul 2026—continue to weigh on robusta prices. The National Statistics Office also projects 2025/26 production at 1.76 million metric tons, a 6% increase.
The USDA’s July 22 forecast underscored global coffee production growth, predicting a 2026/27 season output of 189.7 million bags (a 6% increase), driven by Brazil’s projected 71.9 million-bag crop—a 14% rise. Ending stocks are expected to reach 26.3 million bags, up 1.9 million from prior forecasts.
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