September arabica coffee (KCU26) closed +4.35% (+1.30%), while ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) fell -13 (-0.34%). AP Arabica prices held below Tuesday’s 1-month high.
Coffee prices surged Wednesday amid supply concerns following a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in Colombia that impacted key coffee-growing regions. The disaster halted terminal operations in Buenaventura, a primary export hub, and caused regional transport disruptions.
Inventory dynamics show separation between markets: arabica stocks hit a 2.75-year low (240,285 bags), buoyed by Brazil’s slower harvest. Meanwhile, robusta inventories reached a 5-month high (4,364 lots), pressured by strong exports from top producer Vietnam.
Brazil’s arabica harvest completion stood at 74.6% by August 7, lagging 2023’s 80.4%. Reduced rainfall in Minas Gerais (5.8mm vs 92% average) may accelerate harvest pace but also signals potential yield risks. Coffee traders highlight potential 2026/27 crop impacts from an impending strong El Niño, which could delay flowering and reduce yields.
Vietnam’s robusta market expanded sharply, with 2026 exports up 21.1% YoY. This surge threatens robusta prices despite Colombia’s shortage. USDA forecasts predict record global coffee output (189.7 million bags), driven by Brazil’s improved conditions, though they note potential supply constraints from weather volatility.
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