Connor McMichael is among the new additions hoping to make an immediate difference for the St. Louis Blues. Acquired in the trade involving Jordan Kyrou, the 25-year-old forward will have an opportunity to secure a spot in the top six. A strong start would help show that his breakout season was more than a one-year anomaly.
A Breakout Season in Washington
McMichael entered 2024-25 in his third full season with the Washington Capitals. After scoring 18 goals the previous year and helping the team reach the playoffs, he was expected to take another step forward offensively.
He delivered. McMichael played all 82 games, scoring 26 goals and adding 31 assists for 57 points. His 26 goals ranked fifth on the team, while the Capitals captured the Metropolitan Division and finished as the Eastern Conference’s top seed. Washington was eventually eliminated in the second round, but the season provided reason for optimism. For McMichael, it established him as a legitimate NHL scoring threat.
A Step Back in 2025-26
McMichael’s production declined the following season. He scored 14 goals and recorded 32 assists for 46 points across 78 games. Although the drop in scoring is notable, several indicators suggest he can return to 20-goal form.
Shooting Percentage and Shot Volume
Shooting percentage will likely play a major role in his rebound. McMichael converted 14.6% of his shots during his 26-goal season, but that figure fell to 9.9% in 2025-26. The difference helps explain much of the decline in his goal total.
McMichael also generated fewer shots in 2025-26, finishing with 142 compared with 177 the previous season. Even at that reduced volume, maintaining his 14.6% shooting percentage would have produced approximately 21 goals. That would still have fallen short of 26, but it would have offered stronger evidence that he can be a consistent 20-goal scorer.
To support another scoring increase, McMichael will need to shoot more frequently while continuing to finish the chances he already creates.
Production at Even Strength
McMichael’s breakout was driven primarily by his even-strength play. Only four of his 26 goals came on the power play, while two of his 14 goals in 2025-26 came with the man advantage. That shows he can create and finish scoring opportunities without relying heavily on special teams.
Playing alongside Mason McTavish, who is also looking to rebound, could help McMichael generate more offense at five-on-five. If the two develop strong chemistry, they may become an effective complementary pairing.
Reasons for Optimism
Despite the decline in goals, McMichael’s playmaking remained intact. His assist total increased slightly to 32, suggesting that his overall offensive ability had not disappeared. The finishing numbers dipped, but the skills that make him a dangerous forward remained evident.
The Blues are not acquiring McMichael with the expectation that they must rebuild his game from the ground up. He remained productive, and at 26, he is entering what could be his prime years. There is a realistic path for him to reestablish himself as a reliable scorer.
His development has not followed a straight line. McMichael scored nine goals and 18 points in 68 games during his first extended NHL opportunity in 2021-22. After appearing in only six games the following season, he returned to score 18 goals and 33 points in 80 games in 2023-24 before breaking out the next year.
A Fresh Start in St. Louis
A new team gives McMichael the chance to define a different role and build chemistry with linemates who complement his offensive strengths. St. Louis does not need him to carry the entire attack. Surrounded by players who can create space, move the puck and draw attention from defenders, McMichael should find opportunities to use his shot from dangerous areas.
McMichael has never depended heavily on power-play goals, but even modest improvement with the man advantage could help him approach 26 again. Increasing his total from two power-play goals to four or five would close part of the gap.
The formula for a bounce-back season is straightforward: increase his shot volume, continue attacking dangerous areas and trust the scoring ability he has already demonstrated at the NHL level.